{"series":"bgr-ai","what":"one row per day the model wrote a forecast; the signed day file under days/ is the record, this is the index","days":[{"as_of":"2026-09-22","origin_close":86158.6,"regime":"post-squeeze pullback into a long stack, cycle day 351","paths":26,"coverage":1.0000000000000004,"valid":true,"leader":{"probability":0.085,"name":"80600 stack holds, s2 value reclaimed, 96481 by winter, 99325 shorts squeezed, spring range 103035–109996, 121875 swept in summer","end":121875.0,"end_day":365.0,"levels":[85521.97409094818,82817.2648093112,80600.0,85521.97409094818,89999.752228305,96481.1555268,99325.0,103035.030748923,109995.684938239,103035.030748923,115992.363637308,121875.0]},"first_fork":[{"to":85521.97409094818,"direction":"down","probability":0.9650000000000004,"days_median":1.0,"paths":25},{"to":87389.54136519055,"direction":"up","probability":0.035,"days_median":2.0,"paths":1}],"reach_share":1.0,"bear_case":"80600 is accepted below and the stacks chain through 73881 to a sweep of 66998 (POC s25) that fails, with 60994/57759 swept and the year spent under 80600 — about 16%.","base_case":"The 80600/79628 stack is swept and held (or 66998 is swept and reclaimed on the template), value rotates back through 90000 and the year ends between 80600 and 103035 after a 96481–99325 squeeze — about 54%.","bull_case":"A reclaim of 85522 leads through 96481 and the 99325–100874 short stack to 109996 and a summer sweep of 115992–126208 — about 30%.","cost_usd":5.6996485,"hash":"2193ff9961d35e96658115a64b660f3667085911b5035b15f93c78e1f13838df"},{"as_of":"2026-09-23","origin_close":84355.1,"regime":"post-impulse pullback inside s2 lower value; hourly range, no accepted trend","paths":26,"coverage":1.0000000000000004,"valid":true,"leader":{"probability":0.08,"name":"82,817 swept and reclaimed, s2 value rotates to 97,932, range 90,000↔97,932, then the break to s23","end":115992.363637308,"end_day":365.0,"levels":[82817.2648093112,85521.97409094818,87389.54136519055,89999.752228305,92201.00891283,96481.1555268,97932.0,89999.752228305,97932.0,100874.133928584,109995.684938239,115992.363637308]},"first_fork":[{"to":82817.2648093112,"direction":"down","probability":0.6400000000000001,"days_median":3.0,"paths":16},{"to":85521.97409094818,"direction":"up","probability":0.3600000000000001,"days_median":2.0,"paths":10}],"reach_share":1.0,"bear_case":"82,817 and 81,583 are accepted, 80,600 and 79,628 give way, 72,992's 919 BTC of longs chain through the 69,198 gap to 66,998 or 60,994, and the year ranges 60,994–72,992 — 26% across eight paths.","base_case":"s2's range holds both ends: 80,600 (rangelow bounces 54%, n 91, walk 42%) and 87,390/90,000 (POC from below bounces 54%, n 67) rotate for two or three quarters before a late break, the year ending 85,522–97,932 — 22% across six paths.","bull_case":"The nearest low (82,817, 80,600 or 76,144) is swept and reclaimed within six weeks, s2 value rotates to 92,201 and 96,481, 97,932 is swept for its 1,865 BTC of shorts and accepted on the first or second try, and the year ends at 100,874–126,208 — 52% across twelve paths.","cost_usd":3.4778995,"hash":"20acb1f3d96140c372ee6faebe1a6fa131b31637866afc43dc6927c7afa9efe5"}],"updated_ms":1790213551783}