{"model":"bgr-ai","as_of":"2026-09-23","config_hash":"8c1f676ddec6fdfce7c597d0cec750faa806e6c9b21ea8468a39e0ad0d52b4c8","rule_version":"engine-2","origin_close":84355.1,"sigma_daily":0.023695241878438852,"ladder":[{"kind":"liq_band","price":8600.0,"owner":"liqmap","tag":null,"size":8037.6868},{"kind":"liq_band","price":8800.0,"owner":"liqmap","tag":null,"size":15383.8114},{"kind":"liq_band","price":10100.0,"owner":"liqmap","tag":null,"size":10802.4214},{"kind":"range_low","price":20386.0,"owner":"s26","tag":"both","size":null},{"kind":"va70_low","price":22176.73529434,"owner":"s26","tag":"both","size":null,"merged":["HvnLow@22269 of 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sweep:s13"]},{"kind":"drawn_level","price":118005.67189939042,"owner":"high_volume_node:s9","tag":"operator","size":null},{"kind":"hvn_high","price":119508.093750195,"owner":"s3","tag":"cycle","size":null,"merged":["HvnHigh@120439 of s23"]},{"kind":"liq_band","price":121875.0,"owner":"liqmap","tag":null,"size":1268.1741},{"kind":"liq_band","price":124150.0,"owner":"liqmap","tag":null,"size":1290.3754},{"kind":"ath","price":126208.0,"owner":"ath@2025-10-06","tag":null,"size":null,"merged":["RangeHigh@126208 of s23","Ath@126208 of ath@2025-10-06","RangeHigh@126208 of s3","Sweep@126241 of sweep:s12"]}],"dossier_missing":["open interest and long/short ratios for the as-of day (metrics archive behind)"],"run":{"model":"claude-fable-5-1","effort":"high","attempts":2,"seconds":298.2092217,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":81253,"cache_read_input_tokens":7334,"output_tokens":35662,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":975},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":81253,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":0},"inference_geo":"not_available","iterations":[{"input_tokens":2,"output_tokens":35662,"cache_read_input_tokens":7334,"cache_creation_input_tokens":81253,"cache_creation":{"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":81253},"type":"message"}],"speed":"standard"},"cost_usd":3.4778995,"run_dir":"E:\\CraneTraderBot\\data\\forecast\\ai\\runs\\2026-09-23"},"answer":{"read":"Close 84,355 sits inside s2's lower value: 85,522 (s2 VAL, held 1 of 1 from below) is 1.4% above, the 82,817 sweep level with 120 BTC of longs is 1.8% below, then 81,583 (s3 VAL, 113 BTC) and 80,600 (s2 range low, 91 BTC). The 09-21 impulse (+13,962 BTC taker delta) has been followed by two days of taker selling (−11,685 and −6,261) with a 2.1% drop, 5d/20d CVD at −0.7%/−1.3% of volume, funding 1–11% APR and a 51.8/48.2 account split: neither side is crowded, and with OI unavailable today the price/OI/CVD matrix cannot say whether the impulse was longs opening or shorts covering. Liquidity is asymmetric: 4.4k BTC of shorts within 20% above (1,865 at 97,932, 1,180 at 99,325, 1,124 at 100,874) against 5.1k of longs within 20% below and 30k more at 57,759–66,998, so the far magnets are down while the near fuel is even. The five analogs are +27% to +98% at 365 days but split at 30 days (−6% to +18%); the cycle templates from day 352 sweep a low at 0.76–0.83x in the first 2–9 weeks (2018, 2022) then trend to 1.5–3.4x, or range 0.63–0.82x all year (2014). The next leg is decided at 82,817: reclaimed, s2 value rotates to 87,390 and 90,000; accepted, the long stacks chain to 80,600 and s27 value.","regime":"post-impulse pullback inside s2 lower value; hourly range, no accepted trend","key_risks":["Open interest and long/short for today are missing: the 09-21 +13,962 BTC impulse cannot be classified (longs opening vs short squeeze), so every first-week probability is a walk adjusted only by CVD.","30,000 BTC of longs rest between 57,759 and 66,998 (7,473 at 65,352, 6,704 at 60,994, 6,738 at 57,759) against 6,000 BTC of shorts above 117,300: a lost 72,992 (919 BTC) has a chain of fuel beneath it that the upside does not have until 97,932.","1,865 BTC of shorts at 97,932 plus the 97,700–97,965 CME gap make s2's high a magnet that has rejected 38% of approaches (rangehigh from below, n 156): reaching it is likelier than holding above it.","The Terminal's 7 bull signals (graded 90.4%) and the 15m bear divergences are all untested tier: unmeasured, weighed as noise.","69,198 has given way 8 of 8 times from above and sits on the unfilled 68,575–69,100 CME gap: any path that loses 72,992 reaches it 44% of the time and rarely stops there."],"bear_case":"82,817 and 81,583 are accepted, 80,600 and 79,628 give way, 72,992's 919 BTC of longs chain through the 69,198 gap to 66,998 or 60,994, and the year ranges 60,994–72,992 — 26% across eight paths.","base_case":"s2's range holds both ends: 80,600 (rangelow bounces 54%, n 91, walk 42%) and 87,390/90,000 (POC from below bounces 54%, n 67) rotate for two or three quarters before a late break, the year ending 85,522–97,932 — 22% across six paths.","bull_case":"The nearest low (82,817, 80,600 or 76,144) is swept and reclaimed within six weeks, s2 value rotates to 92,201 and 96,481, 97,932 is swept for its 1,865 BTC of shorts and accepted on the first or second try, and the year ends at 100,874–126,208 — 52% across twelve paths.","paths":[{"id":"p1","weight":0.08,"name":"82,817 swept and reclaimed, s2 value rotates to 97,932, range 90,000↔97,932, then the break to s23","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44% from 1.4%/1.8% distances) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% of volume, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; swept and reclaimed on the 1h hidden CVD bull div (untested tier)."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44% from 1.4%/1.8% distances) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% of volume, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; swept and reclaimed on the 1h hidden CVD bull div (untested tier).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance is even: VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but 81,583's own 2 of 2 from above gave way; the −11,685 BTC taker delta of 09-22 was absorbed; s2 VAL (held 1 of 1 from below) retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance is even: VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but 81,583's own 2 of 2 from above gave way; the −11,685 BTC taker delta of 09-22 was absorbed; s2 VAL (held 1 of 1 from below) retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); with the 82,817 longs flushed the 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 are the only fuel above and are swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); with the 82,817 longs flushed the 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 are the only fuel above and are swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC of shorts at 90,000 is no wall; 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC of shorts at 90,000 is no wall; 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounces only 35% (n 91, walk 46%) and gives way 80%; s2 closed inside value 77% of days so the top of value is the exit."],"why":"VAH from below bounces only 35% (n 91, walk 46%) and gives way 80%; s2 closed inside value 77% of days so the top of value is the exit.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%), a detail on the way to s3's POC; 18 BTC of shorts at 96,481; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%), a detail on the way to s3's POC; 18 BTC of shorts at 96,481; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 CME gap pull price through it; the sweep is sold."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 CME gap pull price through it; the sweep is sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): value re-anchors at s2's POC while the shorts above 92,201 rebuild; range 90,000↔97,932."],"why":"POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): value re-anchors at s2's POC while the shorts above 92,201 rebuild; range 90,000↔97,932.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":50.0,"days_range":[20.0,110.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts stacked 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break."],"why":"Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts stacked 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 1,124 BTC of shorts at 100,874 and 1,180 at 99,325 are the squeeze fuel; retested from above and held."],"why":"HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 1,124 BTC of shorts at 100,874 and 1,180 at 99,325 are the squeeze fuel; retested from above and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":75.0,"days_range":[30.0,150.0],"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23's POC is where 185 days of business was done; 2018 template is 1.3x by week 18."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23's POC is where 185 days of business was done; 2018 template is 1.3x by week 18.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":115992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":76.0,"days_range":[30.0,150.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990 above; year ends 1.37x, inside the 2022 template's band."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990 above; year ends 1.37x, inside the 2022 template's band.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p2","weight":0.065,"name":"82,817 accepted, 81,583 gives way, 80,600 range low swept and reclaimed — the template low — then a trend to the ATH sweep","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7%, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; here the wick is not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7%, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; here the wick is not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance under 82,817 is even (reclaim 50%); s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC of longs under it."],"why":"Acceptance under 82,817 is even (reclaim 50%); s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC of longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":7.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) → 46% vs a hold; s2 range low 80,600 (91 BTC longs) is the bad low of the 09-18 breakout, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), a real edge, reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) → 46% vs a hold; s2 range low 80,600 (91 BTC longs) is the bad low of the 09-18 breakout, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), a real edge, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) with the 81,583–82,817 stacks flushed; 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward (from below gives way 70%, n 87)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) with the 81,583–82,817 stacks flushed; 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward (from below gives way 70%, n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the retest of the 09-21 high."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the retest of the 09-21 high.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%; 24 BTC of shorts at it."],"why":"VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%; 24 BTC of shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["93,909 HVN high (from below gives way 80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) are passed inside the leg; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 pull price through."],"why":"93,909 HVN high (from below gives way 80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) are passed inside the leg; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 pull price through.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["Sweep accepted 55%: HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts at 99,325–100,874 squeezed; retested from above, held."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55%: HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts at 99,325–100,874 squeezed; retested from above, held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":70.0,"days_range":[30.0,140.0],"basis":["s23 VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is 185 days of value; 2018/2022 templates are 1.3–1.4x by week 20."],"why":"s23 VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is 185 days of value; 2018/2022 templates are 1.3–1.4x by week 20.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":115992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":126208.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.42,"days_median":92.0,"days_range":[40.0,180.0],"basis":["Above VAH the ladder is liquidity: 1,268 BTC at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150, 1,151 at 126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); the ATH is swept for the shorts and rejected — the 2014 template's 1.16x high at week 50, scaled."],"why":"Above VAH the ladder is liquidity: 1,268 BTC at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150, 1,151 at 126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); the ATH is swept for the shorts and rejected — the 2014 template's 1.16x high at week 50, scaled.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"}]},{"id":"p3","weight":0.06,"name":"Straight up through 85,522 and 87,390 to the s2 POC, retest holds, 97,932 sweep fails once, range, then the break to s23 and 124,150","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk from 1.4%/1.8% gives 56% up but 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3% of volume and today's 83,450 LL take it to 45%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it; 7 bull signals graded 90% but untested tier."],"why":"Walk from 1.4%/1.8% gives 56% up but 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3% of volume and today's 83,450 LL take it to 45%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it; 7 bull signals graded 90% but untested tier.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%) and 85,522 held 1 of 1 from below; 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high get swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%) and 85,522 held 1 of 1 from below; 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high get swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) once the shorts are cleared; 59 BTC shorts at 90,000 is no wall."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) once the shorts are cleared; 59 BTC shorts at 90,000 is no wall.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch of s2's POC rotates back to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch of s2's POC rotates back to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Retest held (VAL from above bounce 62%, n 81); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%), 24 BTC shorts at it."],"why":"Retest held (VAL from above bounce 62%, n 81); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%), 24 BTC shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); s3 POC is the cycle range's value centre; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); s3 POC is the cycle range's value centre; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,50.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 gap are the pull; first sweep rejected."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 gap are the pull; first sweep rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%); 90,000↔97,932 is s2's upper half re-auctioned."],"why":"POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%); 90,000↔97,932 is s2's upper half re-auctioned.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%) so holding is more likely than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break."],"why":"Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%) so holding is more likely than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range"},{"level":103035.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[20.0,100.0],"basis":["HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96) inside the leg; s23 VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); retested and held."],"why":"HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96) inside the leg; s23 VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 HVN and 106,651 s3 VAH (from below gives way 80%, n 91) are passed."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 HVN and 106,651 s3 VAH (from below gives way 80%, n 91) are passed.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":124150.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":90.0,"days_range":[40.0,180.0],"basis":["VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91) then only liquidity bands: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; the 2022 template tops near 1.47x."],"why":"VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91) then only liquidity bands: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; the 2022 template tops near 1.47x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p4","weight":0.06,"name":"The template low: s2 range low and s27 value lost, 76,144 swept and reclaimed in week 5, then a year-long trend to s23's VAH","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs under 82,817 taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs under 82,817 taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance is even; s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Acceptance is even; s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the edge that fails here: the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open is the unfinished business."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the edge that fails here: the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open is the unfinished business.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above holds 54% (n 91) → give-way 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), but 75 BTC of longs under it and 20d CVD −1.3% keep the flush going."],"why":"Rangelow from above holds 54% (n 91) → give-way 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), but 75 BTC of longs under it and 20d CVD −1.3% keep the flush going.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; 76,999 POC is a detail inside s27 value; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, 27 BTC longs swept, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — the 2022 template's 0.76 low maps to 64k, this stops at 0.90."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; 76,999 POC is a detail inside s27 value; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, 27 BTC longs swept, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — the 2022 template's 0.76 low maps to 64k, this stops at 0.90.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) with both ends of s27 value swept; 79,628 retested from below (VAH from below gives way 80%, n 91)."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) with both ends of s27 value swept; 79,628 retested from below (VAH from below gives way 80%, n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[10.0,55.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); 80,600 and 81,583 retaken as details; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); 80,600 and 81,583 retaken as details; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[12.0,70.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the way; a trend leg whose pullbacks hold the last reclaimed level 85,522 (VAL from above bounces 62%, n 81), higher lows along the way."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the way; a trend leg whose pullbacks hold the last reclaimed level 85,522 (VAL from above bounces 62%, n 81), higher lows along the way.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":50.0,"days_range":[20.0,110.0],"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the CME gap pull the sweep."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the CME gap pull the sweep.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts 99,325–100,874."],"why":"HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts 99,325–100,874.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":80.0,"days_range":[30.0,160.0],"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is the destination value; 2022 template 1.3x at week 21."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is the destination value; 2022 template 1.3x at week 21.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":115992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":96.0,"days_range":[40.0,180.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); the year ends near s23's VAH, 1.37x, inside the 2018/2022 template band (1.3–1.9x)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); the year ends near s23's VAH, 1.37x, inside the 2018/2022 template band (1.3–1.9x).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p5","weight":0.06,"name":"87,390 rejects, 82,817 lost, 80,600 holds — a 2014-style range 80,600↔90,000 for two quarters before 97,932","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept and the level reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept and the level reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts are swept but the sweep is sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m regular CVD bear div (untested tier) is the only edge for the rejection."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts are swept but the sweep is sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m regular CVD bear div (untested tier) is the only edge for the rejection.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 is a detail on the way down; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) loses its hold on the second test — kind unmeasured, a guess."],"why":"Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 is a detail on the way down; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) loses its hold on the second test — kind unmeasured, a guess.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["81,583 passed as a detail (its own 2 of 2 gave way from above); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"81,583 passed as a detail (its own 2 of 2 gave way from above); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) and POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): s2's range 80,600↔90,000 re-auctions, 77% of s2 closes were inside value."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) and POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): s2's range 80,600↔90,000 re-auctions, 77% of s2 closes were inside value.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91): the 2014 template (weeks 10–45 between 0.63 and 0.82) mapped onto s2's range."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91): the 2014 template (weeks 10–45 between 0.63 and 0.82) mapped onto s2's range.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Third approach to the POC: poc from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) after two holds; 87,390 shorts rebuilt and taken."],"why":"Third approach to the POC: poc from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) after two holds; 87,390 shorts rebuilt and taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[10.0,55.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[12.0,70.0],"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed level; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed level; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":83.0,"days_range":[30.0,160.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965; the year ends with the sweep of s2's high, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965; the year ends with the sweep of s2's high, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p6","weight":0.05,"name":"Up first, 90,000 rejects, s2 value lost, 76,144 swept and reclaimed, then the slow trend back to 96,481","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29 and holds again."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29 and holds again.","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Rejection at the POC rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 85,522 has given way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Rejection at the POC rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 85,522 has given way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → retest fails 42%; 82,817 (120 BTC longs) a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → retest fails 42%; 82,817 (120 BTC longs) a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails against 91 BTC of longs beneath."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails against 91 BTC of longs beneath.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above but the 09-18 breakout bar is retraced in full."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above but the 09-18 breakout bar is retraced in full.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81), held 1 of 1, 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — the 2018 template's 0.83 low (day 12) is 70k, this is 0.90."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81), held 1 of 1, 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — the 2018 template's 0.83 low (day 12) is 70k, this is 0.90.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":50.0,"days_range":[20.0,110.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); s2 VAL retested from below a second time."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); s2 VAL retested from below a second time.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":100.0,"days_range":[40.0,200.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second visit; 85,522↔90,000 rotates inside s2 value (77% of closes) for a quarter first."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second visit; 85,522↔90,000 rotates inside s2 value (77% of closes) for a quarter first.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":110.0,"days_range":[40.0,200.0],"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); s3 POC is where the year ends, 1.14x."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); s3 POC is where the year ends, 1.14x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p7","weight":0.05,"name":"Bear: s27 lost, 72,992's 919 BTC of longs chain to the 69,198 gap, 66,998 swept and reclaimed, then a range 69,972↔79,628","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above but 52 BTC of longs at 76,999/76,144 chain with OI unknown today."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above but 52 BTC of longs at 76,999/76,144 chain with OI unknown today.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81) → 42%; 73,881 (s25 range high, 6 of 13 held from above) a detail; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are magnet and fuel; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81) → 42%; 73,881 (s25 range high, 6 of 13 held from above) a detail; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are magnet and fuel; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":69198.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 44%; 71,538 and 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside the leg; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 44%; 71,538 and 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside the leg; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above; 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.79x, the 2022 template's 0.76 low."],"why":"69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above; 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.79x, the 2022 template's 0.76 low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15); rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87, walk 64%)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15); rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87, walk 64%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":50.0,"days_range":[20.0,110.0],"basis":["Rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — first approach rejected."],"why":"Rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — first approach rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend"},{"level":69972.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":100.0,"days_range":[40.0,180.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% the rotation returns to the range low; s25 VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 857 BTC of longs under it; range 69,972↔79,628."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% the rotation returns to the range low; s25 VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 857 BTC of longs under it; range 69,972↔79,628.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":131.0,"days_range":[50.0,220.0],"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145): the range holds its low; year ends at the top of s27 value, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year mapped onto s25/s27 value."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145): the range holds its low; year ends at the top of s27 value, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year mapped onto s25/s27 value.","at_level":null,"shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p8","weight":0.05,"name":"85,522 rejects, 81,583 holds, value rotates to 92,201 twice; range 85,522↔92,201, then 97,932 and s3 VAH","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the 60 BTC of shorts at 85,522 are swept and the level sold."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the 60 BTC of shorts at 85,522 are swept and the level sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection travels to 82,817 rather than lifting; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection travels to 82,817 rather than lifting; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; 113 BTC of longs at 81,583 are the next fuel; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 14 touches; the 09-19 low swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; 113 BTC of longs at 81,583 are the next fuel; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 14 touches; the 09-19 low swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below, gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below, gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; first touch of an untested VAH (0 touches) sweeps 24 BTC of shorts and is sold — bounce 35% (n 91, walk 46%)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; first touch of an untested VAH (0 touches) sweeps 24 BTC of shorts and is sold — bounce 35% (n 91, walk 46%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40%: failure above VAH rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40%: failure above VAH rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); s2 value 85,522↔92,201 rotates (77% of s2 closes inside value) until VAH gives way — from below 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); s2 value 85,522↔92,201 rotates (77% of s2 closes inside value) until VAH gives way — from below 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"range"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["93,909 HVN high (80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, rejected."],"why":"93,909 HVN high (80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounce 38% (n 156) → 45% the pullback reaches the last reclaimed level; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%)."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounce 38% (n 156) → 45% the pullback reaches the last reclaimed level; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":106651.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":148.0,"days_range":[60.0,240.0],"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); 97,932 breaks on the retest (rangehigh from above gives way 53%, n 158), 100,874 HVN low from below 77% (n 96), 103,035 VAL 70% (n 87); s3 VAH is 1.26x by year end."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); 97,932 breaks on the retest (rangehigh from above gives way 53%, n 158), 100,874 HVN low from below 77% (n 96), 103,035 VAL 70% (n 87); s3 VAH is 1.26x by year end.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p9","weight":0.045,"name":"Deep bear: the long stacks chain 72,992 → 66,998 → 65,352 → 60,994; s24 POC swept and reclaimed, then a range 60,994↔69,972","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2); 75 BTC longs."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2); 75 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain, OI unknown."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain, OI unknown.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":69198.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — but 2,919 BTC of longs at it and 7,473 at 65,352 are the largest stacks within 25%: the cascade continues."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — but 2,919 BTC of longs at it and 7,473 at 65,352 are the largest stacks within 25%: the cascade continues.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":65352.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (41 touches: 7 held / 14 bounced / 16 gave way from above) carries 7,473 BTC of longs — the magnet; HVN high from above bounces 65% (n 141) but the stack is the fuel."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (41 touches: 7 held / 14 bounced / 16 gave way from above) carries 7,473 BTC of longs — the magnet; HVN high from above bounces 65% (n 141) but the stack is the fuel.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":60994.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 (2,897 BTC) a detail inside s24 value; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94); 6,704 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.72x, between the 2022 (0.76) and 2014 (0.49) lows."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 (2,897 BTC) a detail inside s24 value; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94); 6,704 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.72x, between the 2022 (0.76) and 2014 (0.49) lows.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":69972.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94, walk 53%) with the 60,994–66,998 stacks flushed; 63,603 and 65,352 from below (hvnhigh gives way 80%, n 107) passed; s25 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — rejected."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94, walk 53%) with the 60,994–66,998 stacks flushed; 63,603 and 65,352 from below (hvnhigh gives way 80%, n 107) passed; s25 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend"},{"level":60994.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":223.0,"days_range":[90.0,300.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → rotation back to s24's POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94): range 60,994↔69,972 for the rest of the year — the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82) mapped onto s24/s25 value."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → rotation back to s24's POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94): range 60,994↔69,972 for the rest of the year — the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82) mapped onto s24/s25 value.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p10","weight":0.04,"name":"87,390 rejects, s2 low lost, s27 VAL swept and reclaimed, then a break-and-retest ladder through 87,390 to s23","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 87,390 shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 87,390 shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 a detail; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) lost on the second test — a guess, kind unmeasured."],"why":"Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 a detail; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) lost on the second test — a guess, kind unmeasured.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["81,583 a detail; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails this time: 91 BTC of longs and the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open unfinished."],"why":"81,583 a detail; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails this time: 91 BTC of longs and the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open unfinished.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81); 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed, 0.90x."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81); 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed, 0.90x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 79,628 and 80,600 passed as details; s3 VAL from below held 4 of 4 (n 4) — retested from below and taken, kind gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 79,628 and 80,600 passed as details; s3 VAL from below held 4 of 4 (n 4) — retested from below and taken, kind gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[12.0,70.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 85,522 a detail; the twice-rejected high breaks on the third test with its shorts rebuilt — kind unmeasured, a guess."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 85,522 a detail; the twice-rejected high breaks on the third test with its shorts rebuilt — kind unmeasured, a guess.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[12.0,70.0],"basis":["POC 90,000 from below gives way 67% (n 67) inside the leg; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC 90,000 from below gives way 67% (n 67) inside the leg; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":167.0,"days_range":[70.0,270.0],"basis":["Sweep accepted: HVN low 100,874 from below 77% (n 96), VAL 103,035 70% (n 87), s3 VAH 106,651 80% (n 91); year ends at s23's POC, 1.30x — the 2022 template's week-30 level."],"why":"Sweep accepted: HVN low 100,874 from below 77% (n 96), VAL 103,035 70% (n 87), s3 VAH 106,651 80% (n 91); year ends at s23's POC, 1.30x — the 2022 template's week-30 level.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p11","weight":0.04,"name":"90,000 rejects, s2 range holds once, then 80,600 gives way — the late low: 72,992 held, then lost, 66,998 swept and reclaimed","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below (2026-01-29), poc from below bounces 54% (n 67)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below (2026-01-29), poc from below bounces 54% (n 67).","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details inside the rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details inside the rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails on the third test: the flush takes s2's bad low."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails on the third test: the flush takes s2's bad low.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 (held 2 of 2 from above) passed after a third failure; VAL 76,144 held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"Rangelow from above give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 (held 2 of 2 from above) passed after a third failure; VAL 76,144 held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are the magnet, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are the magnet, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% → 44% the rotation returns to the range low; second test with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% → 44% the rotation returns to the range low; second test with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":144.0,"days_range":[60.0,240.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p12","weight":0.035,"name":"Fast bull: 97,932 swept and accepted on the first try, s23 value regained, 100,874 retest holds, 124,150 by year end","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[2.0,10.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues vs the retest of 85,522; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues vs the retest of 85,522; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts, CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts, CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["Sweep accepted 55% (rangehigh bounce 38% is the counter; 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 the fuel); HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); retested and held."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55% (rangehigh bounce 38% is the counter; 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 the fuel); HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":103035.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[10.0,55.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23 VAL gave way 1 of 1 from above, retested from below and held."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23 VAL gave way 1 of 1 from above, retested from below and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[20.0,100.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 and 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; 2018 template 1.4x by week 20."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 and 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; 2018 template 1.4x by week 20.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback to the last reclaimed level; HVN low from above bounces 64% (n 76, walk 63%), 100,874 held 1 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback to the last reclaimed level; HVN low from above bounces 64% (n 76, walk 63%), 100,874 held 1 of 2 from above.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":115992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":70.0,"days_range":[30.0,140.0],"basis":["HVN low from above bounce 64% (n 76); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"HVN low from above bounce 64% (n 76); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":124150.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.52,"days_median":113.0,"days_range":[50.0,200.0],"basis":["Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; HVN high 119,508 from below gives way 80% (n 107); 1.47x is the 2022 template's high."],"why":"Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; HVN high 119,508 from below gives way 80% (n 107); 1.47x is the 2022 template's high.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p13","weight":0.035,"name":"82,817 reclaimed, the 2018 template: 97,932 accepted, s3 VAH, 103,035 retest holds, the ATH swept and rejected","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%."],"why":"VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,50.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["Accepted 55% vs rejected 45%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"Accepted 55% vs rejected 45%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":106651.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87), 104,898 passed; s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87), 104,898 passed; s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":103035.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":35.0,"days_range":[12.0,80.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% pullback to the last reclaimed VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 103,035 gave way 1 of 1 from above (n 1, a guess)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% pullback to the last reclaimed VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 103,035 gave way 1 of 1 from above (n 1, a guess).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":115992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":80.0,"days_range":[30.0,160.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); VAH from below 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); VAH from below 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":126208.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":111.0,"days_range":[50.0,200.0],"basis":["Liquidity bands 1,004/1,268/1,290/1,151 BTC at 117,300/121,875/124,150/126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); the ATH swept for the shorts and rejected at 1.50x — 2018's 3.4x is out of reach at peak_over_trend 1.25 vs 6.4."],"why":"Liquidity bands 1,004/1,268/1,290/1,151 BTC at 117,300/121,875/124,150/126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); the ATH swept for the shorts and rejected at 1.50x — 2018's 3.4x is out of reach at peak_over_trend 1.25 vs 6.4.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"}]},{"id":"p14","weight":0.035,"name":"Up first, 90,000 rejects, everything to 72,992 chains, the 69,198 CME gap fills — swept and reclaimed — then a range 69,972↔79,628","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below and holds again."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below and holds again.","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Rejection at the POC rotates to VAL; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Rejection at the POC rotates to VAL; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — lost: 20d CVD −1.3% and 52 BTC of longs chain to the 919 at 72,992."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — lost: 20d CVD −1.3% and 52 BTC of longs chain to the 919 at 72,992.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at the untouched s27 range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at the untouched s27 range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":69198.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) a detail; CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15) — swept and reclaimed, 0.82x, the 2018 template's 0.83 low."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) a detail; CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15) — swept and reclaimed, 0.82x, the 2018 template's 0.83 low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.35,"days_median":35.0,"days_range":[12.0,80.0],"basis":["69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8) so a hold is the minority read, 35%; 72,992 retaken (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8) so a hold is the minority read, 35%; 72,992 retaken (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":238.0,"days_range":[90.0,330.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) on each approach: range 69,972↔79,628 for the rest of the year, ending at its top, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) on each approach: range 69,972↔79,628 for the rest of the year, ending at its top, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year.","at_level":null,"shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p15","weight":0.035,"name":"81,583 holds, 87,390 rejects — a range 81,583↔87,390 for two months, then 80,600 lost, 76,144 held, 72,992 swept, back to 85,522","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance under 82,817 even; s3 VAL 81,583 (14 touches, 113 BTC longs) swept: va70low from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); the 09-19 low taken and reclaimed."],"why":"Acceptance under 82,817 even; s3 VAL 81,583 (14 touches, 113 BTC longs) swept: va70low from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); the 09-19 low taken and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept and sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier) is the edge."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept and sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier) is the edge.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42%; 85,522 a detail; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 rotates."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42%; 85,522 a detail; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 rotates.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); second sweep of 87,390 sold — the 09-21 high is a double top after two failures."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); second sweep of 87,390 sold — the 09-21 high is a double top after two failures.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["Second rejection; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details on the third rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails on the third test."],"why":"Second rejection; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details on the third rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails on the third test.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, kind bounces 62% (n 81), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, kind bounces 62% (n 81), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected on the first retest from below."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected on the first retest from below.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → the rotation reaches the range low; 76,144 lost on the second test (kind give-way 63%, n 81); 919 BTC of longs swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → the rotation reaches the range low; 76,144 lost on the second test (kind give-way 63%, n 81); 919 BTC of longs swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%) on the second approach."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%) on the second approach.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":148.0,"days_range":[60.0,240.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); 80,600 (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87) and 81,583 (from below held 4 of 4) retaken; year ends at s2's VAL, 1.01x — the 2014 template's flat year (end 0.93)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); 80,600 (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87) and 81,583 (from below held 4 of 4) retaken; year ends at s2's VAL, 1.01x — the 2014 template's flat year (end 0.93).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p16","weight":0.03,"name":"79,628 holds the first flush, 87,390 rejects again, 79,628 lost on the second, 72,992 held then lost — 66,998 swept, range 66,998↔72,992","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45% give way; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45% give way; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145, walk 61%) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks (324 BTC) flushed; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145, walk 61%) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks (324 BTC) flushed; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept and sold — third rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept and sold — third rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Sweep rejected → 40% the rotation runs through s2's lower value (85,522, 82,817, 81,583 details) to the range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails on the second test."],"why":"Sweep rejected → 40% the rotation runs through s2's lower value (85,522, 82,817, 81,583 details) to the range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails on the second test.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 lost on its second test (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152); s27 VAL lost: kind gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%)."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 lost on its second test (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152); s27 VAL lost: kind gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected a fourth time."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected a fourth time.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91); second test of the range low with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91); second test of the range low with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":212.0,"days_range":[90.0,300.0],"basis":["69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills 92.7%) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x."],"why":"69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills 92.7%) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p17","weight":0.03,"name":"Up to 97,932 in a quarter, the sweep is sold, s2 value lost, 76,144 swept and reclaimed — a year that ends where it started","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[2.0,10.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept and sold; the 2018 template's day-17 'high swept and rejected' at 1.06x."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept and sold; the 2018 template's day-17 'high swept and rejected' at 1.06x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) passed; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — fails."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) passed; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.47,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["POC from above give-way 53% (n 94, walk 70%) → 47%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81); 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from above give-way 53% (n 94, walk 70%) → 47%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81); 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); 82,817 and 81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — lost."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); 82,817 and 81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — lost.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — 0.90x."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — 0.90x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 79,628 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) and 80,600 (rangelow from below 69%, n 87) retaken; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%) — rejected on the first return."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 79,628 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) and 80,600 (rangelow from below 69%, n 87) retaken; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%) — rejected on the first return.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":168.0,"days_range":[70.0,270.0],"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 42% the rotation returns to s27's VAL; range 76,144↔85,522 to year end, ending at its low, 0.90x — the 2014 template (end 0.93)."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 42% the rotation returns to s27's VAL; range 76,144↔85,522 to year end, ending at its low, 0.90x — the 2014 template (end 0.93).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p18","weight":0.03,"name":"Grind: 82,817↔85,522 range, then 87,390, then 81,583↔87,390 range, then a break-and-retest ladder to 109,996","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the first retest from below is sold."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the first retest from below is sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 36% the rejection reaches the sweep level again vs 87,390; 82,817 holds a second time — kind unmeasured, walk."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 36% the rejection reaches the sweep level again vs 87,390; 82,817 holds a second time — kind unmeasured, walk.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Second reclaim of 82,817; VAL 85,522 from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"Second reclaim of 82,817; VAL 85,522 from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42% of a return to s3's VAL vs 90,000; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42% of a return to s3's VAL vs 90,000; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 87,390 breaks on the third test (kind unmeasured, a guess); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 87,390 breaks on the third test (kind unmeasured, a guess); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the retest reaches s2 VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) — holds."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the retest reaches s2 VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) — holds.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 90,000 retaken, VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 90,000 retaken, VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":50.0,"days_range":[20.0,110.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 96,481 and 97,932 (rangehigh from below bounces 38%, n 156; 1,865 BTC shorts) passed; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 96,481 and 97,932 (rangehigh from below bounces 38%, n 156; 1,865 BTC shorts) passed; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["HVN low from below bounce 46% (n 96) → 42%; pullback to the last reclaimed level; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"HVN low from below bounce 46% (n 96) → 42%; pullback to the last reclaimed level; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":94.0,"days_range":[40.0,180.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 103,035 (VAL from below 70%, n 87), 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; s23 POC by year end, 1.30x."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 103,035 (VAL from below 70%, n 87), 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; s23 POC by year end, 1.30x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p19","weight":0.03,"name":"85,522 rejects, 81,583 lost, 79,628 holds — then a year in s2's range 80,600↔87,390 that breaks late to 96,481","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): 60 BTC of shorts swept and the level sold."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): 60 BTC of shorts swept and the level sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection reaches 82,817; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection reaches 82,817; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but its own 2 of 2 from above gave way (n 2, a guess); 113 BTC longs taken."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but its own 2 of 2 from above gave way (n 2, a guess); 113 BTC longs taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); s2 range low with 91 BTC of longs; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); s2 range low with 91 BTC of longs; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks flushed; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks flushed; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept, sold — second rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept, sold — second rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); third sweep of 87,390 sold — the range's top."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); third sweep of 87,390 sold — the range's top.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Third rejection → the range widens to s2's low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%): 80,600↔87,390 for a quarter, the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82, weeks 10–45)."],"why":"Third rejection → the range widens to s2's low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%): 80,600↔87,390 for a quarter, the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82, weeks 10–45).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); 87,390 breaks on the fourth test; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); retested and held."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); 87,390 breaks on the fourth test; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":115.0,"days_range":[50.0,200.0],"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); year ends at s3's POC, 1.14x."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); year ends at s3's POC, 1.14x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]},{"id":"p20","weight":0.025,"name":"2018 template in full: 85,522 retest holds, 97,932 accepted, s3 VAH, s23 VAH, the ATH swept and accepted","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch rotates to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch rotates to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Retest held; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"Retest held; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,50.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC of shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC of shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["Accepted 55%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"Accepted 55%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":106651.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[20.0,100.0],"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":115992.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); s23 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990; retested and held."],"why":"POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); s23 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990; retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":124150.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.52,"days_median":80.0,"days_range":[35.0,160.0],"basis":["Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, HVN high 119,508 (from below gives way 80%, n 107), 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150."],"why":"Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, HVN high 119,508 (from below gives way 80%, n 107), 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":126208.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":80.0,"days_range":[35.0,160.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,151 BTC of shorts at the ATH swept and accepted at 1.50x — the 2018 (1.9x) and 2022 (1.66x) template year-ends; analogs +51 to +98% at 365d."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,151 BTC of shorts at the ATH swept and accepted at 1.50x — the 2018 (1.9x) and 2022 (1.66x) template year-ends; analogs +51 to +98% at 365d.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"}]},{"id":"p21","weight":0.025,"name":"87,390 rejects at once, 81,583 holds for two months, then the range breaks down: s27 lost, 66,998 lost, 63,603 held — a 0.75x year","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"days_range":[2.0,12.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390's 113 BTC of shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390's 113 BTC of shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Sweep rejected 42%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Sweep rejected 42%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42% give way; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42% give way; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 retaken; second sweep of 87,390 sold."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 retaken; second sweep of 87,390 sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["Kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 for two months."],"why":"Kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 for two months.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 38% give way on the third test; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails: the 09-18 breakout fully retraced."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 38% give way on the third test; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails: the 09-18 breakout fully retraced.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":69198.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 passed; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8), CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 passed; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8), CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94) — fails against 2,919 BTC of longs with 7,473 more at 65,352 pulling."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94) — fails against 2,919 BTC of longs with 7,473 more at 65,352 pulling.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":63603.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":200.0,"days_range":[80.0,300.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC) swept inside the leg; s24 VAH held or bounced 18 of 29 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 2,897 BTC longs swept and reclaimed; range 63,603↔69,972 to year end, 0.75x — the 2022 template low."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC) swept inside the leg; s24 VAH held or bounced 18 of 29 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 2,897 BTC longs swept and reclaimed; range 63,603↔69,972 to year end, 0.75x — the 2022 template low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p22","weight":0.02,"name":"Crash: every level from 82,817 to 60,994 chains, 57,759 (the cycle low) swept and reclaimed — 0.68x, then a range 57,759↔66,998","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2)."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":69198.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":65352.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs, 16 of 37 gave way from above) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs, 16 of 37 gave way from above) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":60994.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 BTC of longs at it and 6,057 at 60,048 chain to the cycle low."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 BTC of longs at it and 6,057 at 60,048 chain to the cycle low.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":57759.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":14.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 (s25 VAL, held 4 of 4 from above) a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the 2026-07-01 low swept — the cycle low's unfinished business — and reclaimed on the reset; 0.68x, between 2022's 0.76 and 2014's 0.49."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 (s25 VAL, held 4 of 4 from above) a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the 2026-07-01 low swept — the cycle low's unfinished business — and reclaimed on the reset; 0.68x, between 2022's 0.76 and 2014's 0.49.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":272.0,"days_range":[100.0,330.0],"basis":["Cycle-low reclaim: rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the nearest kind; 60,994 POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); s25 POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) — range 57,759↔66,998 for the rest of the year, ending near its top, 0.79x."],"why":"Cycle-low reclaim: rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the nearest kind; 60,994 POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); s25 POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) — range 57,759↔66,998 for the rest of the year, ending near its top, 0.79x.","at_level":null,"shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p23","weight":0.02,"name":"Reclaim, s2 POC retest holds, 97,932 rejected — a range 92,201↔97,932 for five months, then the break to 103,035","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; the untested VAH's 24 BTC shorts swept — and sold on the first touch, bounce 35% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; the untested VAH's 24 BTC shorts swept — and sold on the first touch, bounce 35% (n 91).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 38% the pullback reaches the POC rather than 96,481; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — holds."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 38% the pullback reaches the POC rather than 96,481; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — holds.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":25.0,"days_range":[8.0,60.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 92,201 (80%, n 91), 93,909 (80%, n 107), 96,481 (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 92,201 (80%, n 91), 93,909 (80%, n 107), 96,481 (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%) — the range's low."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%) — the range's low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); second sweep of the range high sold: rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); second sweep of the range high sold: rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["Second rejection; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145); range 92,201↔97,932 (s2's upper quarter) rotates."],"why":"Second rejection; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145); range 92,201↔97,932 (s2's upper quarter) rotates.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Third approach breaks: shorts rebuilt at 98,000–100,450 (3,374 BTC) are the fuel; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158)."],"why":"Third approach breaks: shorts rebuilt at 98,000–100,450 (3,374 BTC) are the fuel; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158).","at_level":"lost","shape":"range"},{"level":103035.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":111.0,"days_range":[50.0,200.0],"basis":["HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); year ends at s23's VAL, 1.22x."],"why":"HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); year ends at s23's VAL, 1.22x.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"}]},{"id":"p24","weight":0.02,"name":"Up to 96,481, rejected, all the way back to 81,583 which holds — then 90,000↔97,932 for the rest of the year","legs":[{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"days_range":[1.0,6.0],"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[2.0,10.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation"},{"level":92201.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107) to reach s3's POC; there poc from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) — the untested POC's 18 BTC shorts swept and sold, CME gap 95,600–95,665 filled."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107) to reach s3's POC; there poc from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) — the untested POC's 18 BTC shorts swept and sold, CME gap 95,600–95,665 filled.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 44% the rotation runs through 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) and 90,000 (POC from above gives way 53%, n 94) to s2's VAL — lost, 2 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 44% the rotation runs through 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) and 90,000 (POC from above gives way 53%, n 94) to s2's VAL — lost, 2 of 2 from above.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed — the 0.786 pocket of the 09-18 → 96k leg."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed — the 0.786 pocket of the 09-18 → 96k leg.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 (70%, n 87) and 87,390 retaken; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 (70%, n 87) and 87,390 retaken; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":96481.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second approach."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second approach.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":60.0,"days_range":[25.0,120.0],"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): range 90,000↔97,932."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): range 90,000↔97,932.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":118.0,"days_range":[50.0,200.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); the range's top reached again by year end, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); the range's top reached again by year end, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158).","at_level":null,"shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p25","weight":0.015,"name":"Full bear: the cycle low gives way, 53,245 (s24 range low, the 53,695–54,545 CME gap) swept and held — 0.63x","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":81583.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"days_range":[1.0,10.0],"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":79628.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2)."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":76144.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":72992.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":69198.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":66998.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"days_range":[3.0,25.0],"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":65352.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":60994.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,30.0],"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 + 6,057 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 + 6,057 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":57759.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":14.0,"days_range":[5.0,35.0],"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the cycle low swept and not reclaimed — rangelow kind from above bounces 54% (n 91), so acceptance is the minority read."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the cycle low swept and not reclaimed — rangelow kind from above bounces 54% (n 91), so acceptance is the minority read.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":53245.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":272.0,"days_range":[100.0,330.0],"basis":["Rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 40% give way; 55,666 (s24 VAL, held 16 of 18 from above, 3,617 BTC longs) passed; s24 range low held 6 of 6 from above (n 6), CME gap 53,695–54,545 fills (92.7% of 454) — swept and held, then range 53,245↔60,994 to year end, 0.63x — the 2014 template (0.49 low, 0.63–0.72 range)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 40% give way; 55,666 (s24 VAL, held 16 of 18 from above, 3,617 BTC longs) passed; s24 range low held 6 of 6 from above (n 6), CME gap 53,695–54,545 fills (92.7% of 454) — swept and held, then range 53,245↔60,994 to year end, 0.63x — the 2014 template (0.49 low, 0.63–0.72 range).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"}]},{"id":"p26","weight":0.015,"name":"s2 range 80,600↔90,000 for two quarters, then the late break: 97,932, 100,874, 109,996, 124,150 — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, larger","legs":[{"level":82817.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"days_range":[1.0,8.0],"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":85522.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"days_range":[2.0,15.0],"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":87390.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"days_range":[3.0,20.0],"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"days_range":[4.0,25.0],"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below, poc from below bounces 54% (n 67)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below, poc from below bounces 54% (n 67).","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"days_range":[8.0,45.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), 91 BTC of longs swept."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), 91 BTC of longs swept.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":80600.0,"direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — holds a third time, the range's low is finished."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — holds a third time, the range's low is finished.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range"},{"level":90000.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"days_range":[15.0,90.0],"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) on the third approach; retested and held."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) on the third approach; retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":97932.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":45.0,"days_range":[15.0,100.0],"basis":["VAH 92,201 (80%, n 91), HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept."],"why":"VAH 92,201 (80%, n 91), HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend"},{"level":100874.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":30.0,"days_range":[10.0,70.0],"basis":["Sweep accepted 55%; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeezed."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55%; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeezed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest"},{"level":109996.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":50.0,"days_range":[20.0,110.0],"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH 106,651 from below 80% (n 91); s23 POC."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH 106,651 from below 80% (n 91); s23 POC.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"},{"level":124150.0,"direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":66.0,"days_range":[25.0,140.0],"basis":["VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91); liquidity bands 1,268/1,290 BTC at 121,875/124,150; a 13% trend leg in 66 days is the fast end of the tape (10% ≈ 18 days for a walk) — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, 1.47x here."],"why":"VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91); liquidity bands 1,268/1,290 BTC at 121,875/124,150; a 13% trend leg in 66 days is the fast end of the tape (10% ≈ 18 days for a walk) — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, 1.47x here.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend"}]}]},"paths":[{"id":"p1","name":"82,817 swept and reclaimed, s2 value rotates to 97,932, range 90,000↔97,932, then the break to s23","legs":[{"id":"p1/1","path":"p1","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44% from 1.4%/1.8% distances) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% of volume, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; swept and reclaimed on the 1h hidden CVD bull div (untested tier)."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44% from 1.4%/1.8% distances) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% of volume, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; swept and reclaimed on the 1h hidden CVD bull div (untested tier).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p1/2","path":"p1","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance is even: VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but 81,583's own 2 of 2 from above gave way; the −11,685 BTC taker delta of 09-22 was absorbed; s2 VAL (held 1 of 1 from below) retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance is even: VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but 81,583's own 2 of 2 from above gave way; the −11,685 BTC taker delta of 09-22 was absorbed; s2 VAL (held 1 of 1 from below) retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p1/3","path":"p1","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); with the 82,817 longs flushed the 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 are the only fuel above and are swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); with the 82,817 longs flushed the 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 are the only fuel above and are swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p1/4","path":"p1","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC of shorts at 90,000 is no wall; 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC of shorts at 90,000 is no wall; 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p1/5","path":"p1","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounces only 35% (n 91, walk 46%) and gives way 80%; s2 closed inside value 77% of days so the top of value is the exit."],"why":"VAH from below bounces only 35% (n 91, walk 46%) and gives way 80%; s2 closed inside value 77% of days so the top of value is the exit.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p1/6","path":"p1","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%), a detail on the way to s3's POC; 18 BTC of shorts at 96,481; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%), a detail on the way to s3's POC; 18 BTC of shorts at 96,481; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p1/7","path":"p1","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":84.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 CME gap pull price through it; the sweep is sold."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 CME gap pull price through it; the sweep is sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p1/8","path":"p1","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":124.0,"basis":["POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): value re-anchors at s2's POC while the shorts above 92,201 rebuild; range 90,000↔97,932."],"why":"POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): value re-anchors at s2's POC while the shorts above 92,201 rebuild; range 90,000↔97,932.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p1/9","path":"p1","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":174.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts stacked 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break."],"why":"Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts stacked 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p1/10","path":"p1","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":214.0,"basis":["HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 1,124 BTC of shorts at 100,874 and 1,180 at 99,325 are the squeeze fuel; retested from above and held."],"why":"HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 1,124 BTC of shorts at 100,874 and 1,180 at 99,325 are the squeeze fuel; retested from above and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p1/11","path":"p1","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":75.0,"arrival_day":289.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23's POC is where 185 days of business was done; 2018 template is 1.3x by week 18."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23's POC is where 185 days of business was done; 2018 template is 1.3x by week 18.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,150.0]},{"id":"p1/12","path":"p1","from":109995.684938239,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":76.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990 above; year ends 1.37x, inside the 2022 template's band."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990 above; year ends 1.37x, inside the 2022 template's band.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,150.0]}],"probability":0.08,"leg_product":0.0010768431776256,"end":115992.363637308,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p2","name":"82,817 accepted, 81,583 gives way, 80,600 range low swept and reclaimed — the template low — then a trend to the ATH sweep","legs":[{"id":"p2/1","path":"p2","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7%, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; here the wick is not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7%, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; here the wick is not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p2/2","path":"p2","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance under 82,817 is even (reclaim 50%); s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC of longs under it."],"why":"Acceptance under 82,817 is even (reclaim 50%); s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC of longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p2/3","path":"p2","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":7.0,"arrival_day":14.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) → 46% vs a hold; s2 range low 80,600 (91 BTC longs) is the bad low of the 09-18 breakout, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), a real edge, reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) → 46% vs a hold; s2 range low 80,600 (91 BTC longs) is the bad low of the 09-18 breakout, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), a real edge, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p2/4","path":"p2","from":80600.0,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":26.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) with the 81,583–82,817 stacks flushed; 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward (from below gives way 70%, n 87)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) with the 81,583–82,817 stacks flushed; 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward (from below gives way 70%, n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p2/5","path":"p2","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":36.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the retest of the 09-21 high."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the retest of the 09-21 high.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p2/6","path":"p2","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":48.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p2/7","path":"p2","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":63.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%; 24 BTC of shorts at it."],"why":"VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%; 24 BTC of shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p2/8","path":"p2","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":103.0,"basis":["93,909 HVN high (from below gives way 80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) are passed inside the leg; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 pull price through."],"why":"93,909 HVN high (from below gives way 80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) are passed inside the leg; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 pull price through.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p2/9","path":"p2","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":143.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted 55%: HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts at 99,325–100,874 squeezed; retested from above, held."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55%: HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts at 99,325–100,874 squeezed; retested from above, held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p2/10","path":"p2","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":70.0,"arrival_day":213.0,"basis":["s23 VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is 185 days of value; 2018/2022 templates are 1.3–1.4x by week 20."],"why":"s23 VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is 185 days of value; 2018/2022 templates are 1.3–1.4x by week 20.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,140.0]},{"id":"p2/11","path":"p2","from":109995.684938239,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":273.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p2/12","path":"p2","from":115992.363637308,"to":126208.0,"kind":"ath","owner":"ath@2025-10-06","direction":"up","probability":0.42,"days_median":92.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Above VAH the ladder is liquidity: 1,268 BTC at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150, 1,151 at 126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); the ATH is swept for the shorts and rejected — the 2014 template's 1.16x high at week 50, scaled."],"why":"Above VAH the ladder is liquidity: 1,268 BTC at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150, 1,151 at 126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); the ATH is swept for the shorts and rejected — the 2014 template's 1.16x high at week 50, scaled.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[40.0,180.0]}],"probability":0.065,"leg_product":0.0006408230065776002,"end":126208.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p3","name":"Straight up through 85,522 and 87,390 to the s2 POC, retest holds, 97,932 sweep fails once, range, then the break to s23 and 124,150","legs":[{"id":"p3/1","path":"p3","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk from 1.4%/1.8% gives 56% up but 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3% of volume and today's 83,450 LL take it to 45%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it; 7 bull signals graded 90% but untested tier."],"why":"Walk from 1.4%/1.8% gives 56% up but 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3% of volume and today's 83,450 LL take it to 45%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it; 7 bull signals graded 90% but untested tier.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p3/2","path":"p3","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%) and 85,522 held 1 of 1 from below; 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high get swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%) and 85,522 held 1 of 1 from below; 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high get swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p3/3","path":"p3","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) once the shorts are cleared; 59 BTC shorts at 90,000 is no wall."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) once the shorts are cleared; 59 BTC shorts at 90,000 is no wall.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p3/4","path":"p3","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":25.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch of s2's POC rotates back to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch of s2's POC rotates back to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p3/5","path":"p3","from":85521.97409094818,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":40.0,"basis":["Retest held (VAL from above bounce 62%, n 81); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%), 24 BTC shorts at it."],"why":"Retest held (VAL from above bounce 62%, n 81); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%), 24 BTC shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p3/6","path":"p3","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); s3 POC is the cycle range's value centre; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); s3 POC is the cycle range's value centre; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p3/7","path":"p3","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":80.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 gap are the pull; first sweep rejected."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 gap are the pull; first sweep rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,50.0]},{"id":"p3/8","path":"p3","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":110.0,"basis":["POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%); 90,000↔97,932 is s2's upper half re-auctioned."],"why":"POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%); 90,000↔97,932 is s2's upper half re-auctioned.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p3/9","path":"p3","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":170.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%) so holding is more likely than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break."],"why":"Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%) so holding is more likely than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p3/10","path":"p3","from":97932.0,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":215.0,"basis":["HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96) inside the leg; s23 VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); retested and held."],"why":"HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96) inside the leg; s23 VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,100.0]},{"id":"p3/11","path":"p3","from":103035.030748923,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":275.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 HVN and 106,651 s3 VAH (from below gives way 80%, n 91) are passed."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 HVN and 106,651 s3 VAH (from below gives way 80%, n 91) are passed.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p3/12","path":"p3","from":109995.684938239,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":90.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91) then only liquidity bands: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; the 2022 template tops near 1.47x."],"why":"VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91) then only liquidity bands: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; the 2022 template tops near 1.47x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,180.0]}],"probability":0.06,"leg_product":0.0005613378795763198,"end":124150.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p4","name":"The template low: s2 range low and s27 value lost, 76,144 swept and reclaimed in week 5, then a year-long trend to s23's VAH","legs":[{"id":"p4/1","path":"p4","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs under 82,817 taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs under 82,817 taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p4/2","path":"p4","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance is even; s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Acceptance is even; s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p4/3","path":"p4","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the edge that fails here: the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open is the unfinished business."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the edge that fails here: the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open is the unfinished business.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p4/4","path":"p4","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above holds 54% (n 91) → give-way 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), but 75 BTC of longs under it and 20d CVD −1.3% keep the flush going."],"why":"Rangelow from above holds 54% (n 91) → give-way 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), but 75 BTC of longs under it and 20d CVD −1.3% keep the flush going.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p4/5","path":"p4","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; 76,999 POC is a detail inside s27 value; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, 27 BTC longs swept, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — the 2022 template's 0.76 low maps to 64k, this stops at 0.90."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; 76,999 POC is a detail inside s27 value; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, 27 BTC longs swept, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — the 2022 template's 0.76 low maps to 64k, this stops at 0.90.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p4/6","path":"p4","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":44.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) with both ends of s27 value swept; 79,628 retested from below (VAH from below gives way 80%, n 91)."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) with both ends of s27 value swept; 79,628 retested from below (VAH from below gives way 80%, n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p4/7","path":"p4","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":69.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); 80,600 and 81,583 retaken as details; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); 80,600 and 81,583 retaken as details; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,55.0]},{"id":"p4/8","path":"p4","from":85521.97409094818,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":99.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the way; a trend leg whose pullbacks hold the last reclaimed level 85,522 (VAL from above bounces 62%, n 81), higher lows along the way."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the way; a trend leg whose pullbacks hold the last reclaimed level 85,522 (VAL from above bounces 62%, n 81), higher lows along the way.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p4/9","path":"p4","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":149.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the CME gap pull the sweep."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the CME gap pull the sweep.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p4/10","path":"p4","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":189.0,"basis":["HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts 99,325–100,874."],"why":"HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts 99,325–100,874.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p4/11","path":"p4","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":269.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is the destination value; 2022 template 1.3x at week 21."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is the destination value; 2022 template 1.3x at week 21.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,160.0]},{"id":"p4/12","path":"p4","from":109995.684938239,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":96.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); the year ends near s23's VAH, 1.37x, inside the 2018/2022 template band (1.3–1.9x)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); the year ends near s23's VAH, 1.37x, inside the 2018/2022 template band (1.3–1.9x).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,180.0]}],"probability":0.06,"leg_product":0.00043442806419936,"end":115992.363637308,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p5","name":"87,390 rejects, 82,817 lost, 80,600 holds — a 2014-style range 80,600↔90,000 for two quarters before 97,932","legs":[{"id":"p5/1","path":"p5","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept and the level reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept and the level reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p5/2","path":"p5","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p5/3","path":"p5","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts are swept but the sweep is sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m regular CVD bear div (untested tier) is the only edge for the rejection."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts are swept but the sweep is sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m regular CVD bear div (untested tier) is the only edge for the rejection.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p5/4","path":"p5","from":87389.54136519055,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 is a detail on the way down; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) loses its hold on the second test — kind unmeasured, a guess."],"why":"Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 is a detail on the way down; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) loses its hold on the second test — kind unmeasured, a guess.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p5/5","path":"p5","from":82817.2648093112,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["81,583 passed as a detail (its own 2 of 2 gave way from above); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"81,583 passed as a detail (its own 2 of 2 gave way from above); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p5/6","path":"p5","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":77.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) and POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): s2's range 80,600↔90,000 re-auctions, 77% of s2 closes were inside value."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) and POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): s2's range 80,600↔90,000 re-auctions, 77% of s2 closes were inside value.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p5/7","path":"p5","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":137.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91): the 2014 template (weeks 10–45 between 0.63 and 0.82) mapped onto s2's range."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91): the 2014 template (weeks 10–45 between 0.63 and 0.82) mapped onto s2's range.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p5/8","path":"p5","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":197.0,"basis":["Third approach to the POC: poc from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) after two holds; 87,390 shorts rebuilt and taken."],"why":"Third approach to the POC: poc from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) after two holds; 87,390 shorts rebuilt and taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p5/9","path":"p5","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":222.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,55.0]},{"id":"p5/10","path":"p5","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":252.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p5/11","path":"p5","from":96481.1555268,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":282.0,"basis":["POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed level; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed level; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p5/12","path":"p5","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":83.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965; the year ends with the sweep of s2's high, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965; the year ends with the sweep of s2's high, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,160.0]}],"probability":0.06,"leg_product":0.0004844529930240001,"end":97932.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p6","name":"Up first, 90,000 rejects, s2 value lost, 76,144 swept and reclaimed, then the slow trend back to 96,481","legs":[{"id":"p6/1","path":"p6","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p6/2","path":"p6","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p6/3","path":"p6","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29 and holds again."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29 and holds again.","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p6/4","path":"p6","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":23.0,"basis":["Rejection at the POC rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 85,522 has given way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Rejection at the POC rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 85,522 has given way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p6/5","path":"p6","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":33.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → retest fails 42%; 82,817 (120 BTC longs) a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → retest fails 42%; 82,817 (120 BTC longs) a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p6/6","path":"p6","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":45.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails against 91 BTC of longs beneath."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails against 91 BTC of longs beneath.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p6/7","path":"p6","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above but the 09-18 breakout bar is retraced in full."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above but the 09-18 breakout bar is retraced in full.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p6/8","path":"p6","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":75.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81), held 1 of 1, 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — the 2018 template's 0.83 low (day 12) is 70k, this is 0.90."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81), held 1 of 1, 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — the 2018 template's 0.83 low (day 12) is 70k, this is 0.90.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p6/9","path":"p6","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":105.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p6/10","path":"p6","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":155.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); s2 VAL retested from below a second time."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); s2 VAL retested from below a second time.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p6/11","path":"p6","from":85521.97409094818,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":100.0,"arrival_day":255.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second visit; 85,522↔90,000 rotates inside s2 value (77% of closes) for a quarter first."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second visit; 85,522↔90,000 rotates inside s2 value (77% of closes) for a quarter first.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[40.0,200.0]},{"id":"p6/12","path":"p6","from":89999.752228305,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":110.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); s3 POC is where the year ends, 1.14x."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); s3 POC is where the year ends, 1.14x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,200.0]}],"probability":0.05,"leg_product":0.00027100477792410625,"end":96481.1555268,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p7","name":"Bear: s27 lost, 72,992's 919 BTC of longs chain to the 69,198 gap, 66,998 swept and reclaimed, then a range 69,972↔79,628","legs":[{"id":"p7/1","path":"p7","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p7/2","path":"p7","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p7/3","path":"p7","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p7/4","path":"p7","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p7/5","path":"p7","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above but 52 BTC of longs at 76,999/76,144 chain with OI unknown today."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above but 52 BTC of longs at 76,999/76,144 chain with OI unknown today.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/6","path":"p7","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81) → 42%; 73,881 (s25 range high, 6 of 13 held from above) a detail; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are magnet and fuel; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81) → 42%; 73,881 (s25 range high, 6 of 13 held from above) a detail; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are magnet and fuel; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/7","path":"p7","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 44%; 71,538 and 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside the leg; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 44%; 71,538 and 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside the leg; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/8","path":"p7","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above; 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.79x, the 2022 template's 0.76 low."],"why":"69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above; 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.79x, the 2022 template's 0.76 low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/9","path":"p7","from":66997.90106991,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":84.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15); rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87, walk 64%)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15); rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87, walk 64%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p7/10","path":"p7","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":134.0,"basis":["Rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — first approach rejected."],"why":"Rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — first approach rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p7/11","path":"p7","from":79628.305704497,"to":69971.667112755,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":100.0,"arrival_day":234.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% the rotation returns to the range low; s25 VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 857 BTC of longs under it; range 69,972↔79,628."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% the rotation returns to the range low; s25 VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 857 BTC of longs under it; range 69,972↔79,628.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[40.0,180.0]},{"id":"p7/12","path":"p7","from":69971.667112755,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":131.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145): the range holds its low; year ends at the top of s27 value, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year mapped onto s25/s27 value."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145): the range holds its low; year ends at the top of s27 value, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year mapped onto s25/s27 value.","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[50.0,220.0]}],"probability":0.05,"leg_product":0.00022395432407040002,"end":79628.305704497,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p8","name":"85,522 rejects, 81,583 holds, value rotates to 92,201 twice; range 85,522↔92,201, then 97,932 and s3 VAH","legs":[{"id":"p8/1","path":"p8","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the 60 BTC of shorts at 85,522 are swept and the level sold."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the 60 BTC of shorts at 85,522 are swept and the level sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p8/2","path":"p8","from":85521.97409094818,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection travels to 82,817 rather than lifting; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection travels to 82,817 rather than lifting; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p8/3","path":"p8","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":11.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; 113 BTC of longs at 81,583 are the next fuel; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 14 touches; the 09-19 low swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; 113 BTC of longs at 81,583 are the next fuel; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 14 touches; the 09-19 low swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p8/4","path":"p8","from":81583.14037464,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":23.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below, gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below, gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p8/5","path":"p8","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":33.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p8/6","path":"p8","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":45.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p8/7","path":"p8","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":57.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; first touch of an untested VAH (0 touches) sweeps 24 BTC of shorts and is sold — bounce 35% (n 91, walk 46%)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; first touch of an untested VAH (0 touches) sweeps 24 BTC of shorts and is sold — bounce 35% (n 91, walk 46%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p8/8","path":"p8","from":92201.00891283,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":72.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40%: failure above VAH rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40%: failure above VAH rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p8/9","path":"p8","from":85521.97409094818,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":132.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); s2 value 85,522↔92,201 rotates (77% of s2 closes inside value) until VAH gives way — from below 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); s2 value 85,522↔92,201 rotates (77% of s2 closes inside value) until VAH gives way — from below 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p8/10","path":"p8","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":172.0,"basis":["93,909 HVN high (80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, rejected."],"why":"93,909 HVN high (80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p8/11","path":"p8","from":97932.0,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":217.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounce 38% (n 156) → 45% the pullback reaches the last reclaimed level; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%)."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounce 38% (n 156) → 45% the pullback reaches the last reclaimed level; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p8/12","path":"p8","from":92201.00891283,"to":106651.47237216,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":148.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); 97,932 breaks on the retest (rangehigh from above gives way 53%, n 158), 100,874 HVN low from below 77% (n 96), 103,035 VAL 70% (n 87); s3 VAH is 1.26x by year end."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); 97,932 breaks on the retest (rangehigh from above gives way 53%, n 158), 100,874 HVN low from below 77% (n 96), 103,035 VAL 70% (n 87); s3 VAH is 1.26x by year end.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[60.0,240.0]}],"probability":0.05,"leg_product":0.00034461852500275214,"end":106651.47237216,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p9","name":"Deep bear: the long stacks chain 72,992 → 66,998 → 65,352 → 60,994; s24 POC swept and reclaimed, then a range 60,994↔69,972","legs":[{"id":"p9/1","path":"p9","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p9/2","path":"p9","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p9/3","path":"p9","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p9/4","path":"p9","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2); 75 BTC longs."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2); 75 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p9/5","path":"p9","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain, OI unknown."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain, OI unknown.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/6","path":"p9","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/7","path":"p9","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/8","path":"p9","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — but 2,919 BTC of longs at it and 7,473 at 65,352 are the largest stacks within 25%: the cascade continues."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — but 2,919 BTC of longs at it and 7,473 at 65,352 are the largest stacks within 25%: the cascade continues.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/9","path":"p9","from":66997.90106991,"to":65352.18750017,"kind":"hvnhigh","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":67.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (41 touches: 7 held / 14 bounced / 16 gave way from above) carries 7,473 BTC of longs — the magnet; HVN high from above bounces 65% (n 141) but the stack is the fuel."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (41 touches: 7 held / 14 bounced / 16 gave way from above) carries 7,473 BTC of longs — the magnet; HVN high from above bounces 65% (n 141) but the stack is the fuel.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p9/10","path":"p9","from":65352.18750017,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":82.0,"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 (2,897 BTC) a detail inside s24 value; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94); 6,704 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.72x, between the 2022 (0.76) and 2014 (0.49) lows."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 (2,897 BTC) a detail inside s24 value; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94); 6,704 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.72x, between the 2022 (0.76) and 2014 (0.49) lows.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p9/11","path":"p9","from":60994.00623924,"to":69971.667112755,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s25","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":142.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94, walk 53%) with the 60,994–66,998 stacks flushed; 63,603 and 65,352 from below (hvnhigh gives way 80%, n 107) passed; s25 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — rejected."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94, walk 53%) with the 60,994–66,998 stacks flushed; 63,603 and 65,352 from below (hvnhigh gives way 80%, n 107) passed; s25 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p9/12","path":"p9","from":69971.667112755,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":223.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → rotation back to s24's POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94): range 60,994↔69,972 for the rest of the year — the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82) mapped onto s24/s25 value."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → rotation back to s24's POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94): range 60,994↔69,972 for the rest of the year — the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82) mapped onto s24/s25 value.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[90.0,300.0]}],"probability":0.045,"leg_product":0.00011981874454704,"end":60994.00623924,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p10","name":"87,390 rejects, s2 low lost, s27 VAL swept and reclaimed, then a break-and-retest ladder through 87,390 to s23","legs":[{"id":"p10/1","path":"p10","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p10/2","path":"p10","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p10/3","path":"p10","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 87,390 shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 87,390 shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p10/4","path":"p10","from":87389.54136519055,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 a detail; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) lost on the second test — a guess, kind unmeasured."],"why":"Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 a detail; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) lost on the second test — a guess, kind unmeasured.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p10/5","path":"p10","from":82817.2648093112,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":35.0,"basis":["81,583 a detail; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails this time: 91 BTC of longs and the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open unfinished."],"why":"81,583 a detail; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails this time: 91 BTC of longs and the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open unfinished.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p10/6","path":"p10","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":43.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p10/7","path":"p10","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":53.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81); 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed, 0.90x."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81); 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed, 0.90x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p10/8","path":"p10","from":76143.964285736,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":78.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 79,628 and 80,600 passed as details; s3 VAL from below held 4 of 4 (n 4) — retested from below and taken, kind gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 79,628 and 80,600 passed as details; s3 VAL from below held 4 of 4 (n 4) — retested from below and taken, kind gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p10/9","path":"p10","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":108.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 85,522 a detail; the twice-rejected high breaks on the third test with its shorts rebuilt — kind unmeasured, a guess."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 85,522 a detail; the twice-rejected high breaks on the third test with its shorts rebuilt — kind unmeasured, a guess.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p10/10","path":"p10","from":87389.54136519055,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":138.0,"basis":["POC 90,000 from below gives way 67% (n 67) inside the leg; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC 90,000 from below gives way 67% (n 67) inside the leg; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p10/11","path":"p10","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":198.0,"basis":["HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p10/12","path":"p10","from":97932.0,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":167.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted: HVN low 100,874 from below 77% (n 96), VAL 103,035 70% (n 87), s3 VAH 106,651 80% (n 91); year ends at s23's POC, 1.30x — the 2022 template's week-30 level."],"why":"Sweep accepted: HVN low 100,874 from below 77% (n 96), VAL 103,035 70% (n 87), s3 VAH 106,651 80% (n 91); year ends at s23's POC, 1.30x — the 2022 template's week-30 level.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[70.0,270.0]}],"probability":0.04,"leg_product":0.00039410565562368003,"end":109995.684938239,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p11","name":"90,000 rejects, s2 range holds once, then 80,600 gives way — the late low: 72,992 held, then lost, 66,998 swept and reclaimed","legs":[{"id":"p11/1","path":"p11","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p11/2","path":"p11","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p11/3","path":"p11","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p11/4","path":"p11","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below (2026-01-29), poc from below bounces 54% (n 67)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below (2026-01-29), poc from below bounces 54% (n 67).","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p11/5","path":"p11","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details inside the rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details inside the rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p11/6","path":"p11","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":94.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p11/7","path":"p11","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":134.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails on the third test: the flush takes s2's bad low."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails on the third test: the flush takes s2's bad low.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p11/8","path":"p11","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":149.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 (held 2 of 2 from above) passed after a third failure; VAL 76,144 held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"Rangelow from above give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 (held 2 of 2 from above) passed after a third failure; VAL 76,144 held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p11/9","path":"p11","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":161.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are the magnet, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are the magnet, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p11/10","path":"p11","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":191.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p11/11","path":"p11","from":79628.305704497,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":221.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% → 44% the rotation returns to the range low; second test with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% → 44% the rotation returns to the range low; second test with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p11/12","path":"p11","from":72992.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":144.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[60.0,240.0]}],"probability":0.04,"leg_product":0.00023801908838400008,"end":66997.90106991,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p12","name":"Fast bull: 97,932 swept and accepted on the first try, s23 value regained, 100,874 retest holds, 124,150 by year end","legs":[{"id":"p12/1","path":"p12","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p12/2","path":"p12","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,10.0]},{"id":"p12/3","path":"p12","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":12.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p12/4","path":"p12","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":22.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues vs the retest of 85,522; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues vs the retest of 85,522; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p12/5","path":"p12","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p12/6","path":"p12","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":52.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts, CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts, CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p12/7","path":"p12","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":72.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted 55% (rangehigh bounce 38% is the counter; 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 the fuel); HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); retested and held."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55% (rangehigh bounce 38% is the counter; 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 the fuel); HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p12/8","path":"p12","from":100874.133928584,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":97.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23 VAL gave way 1 of 1 from above, retested from below and held."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23 VAL gave way 1 of 1 from above, retested from below and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,55.0]},{"id":"p12/9","path":"p12","from":103035.030748923,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":142.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 and 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; 2018 template 1.4x by week 20."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 and 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; 2018 template 1.4x by week 20.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,100.0]},{"id":"p12/10","path":"p12","from":109995.684938239,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":182.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback to the last reclaimed level; HVN low from above bounces 64% (n 76, walk 63%), 100,874 held 1 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback to the last reclaimed level; HVN low from above bounces 64% (n 76, walk 63%), 100,874 held 1 of 2 from above.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p12/11","path":"p12","from":100874.133928584,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":70.0,"arrival_day":252.0,"basis":["HVN low from above bounce 64% (n 76); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"HVN low from above bounce 64% (n 76); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[30.0,140.0]},{"id":"p12/12","path":"p12","from":115992.363637308,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.52,"days_median":113.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; HVN high 119,508 from below gives way 80% (n 107); 1.47x is the 2022 template's high."],"why":"Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; HVN high 119,508 from below gives way 80% (n 107); 1.47x is the 2022 template's high.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[50.0,200.0]}],"probability":0.035,"leg_product":0.0008173079526631219,"end":124150.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p13","name":"82,817 reclaimed, the 2018 template: 97,932 accepted, s3 VAH, 103,035 retest holds, the ATH swept and rejected","legs":[{"id":"p13/1","path":"p13","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p13/2","path":"p13","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p13/3","path":"p13","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p13/4","path":"p13","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p13/5","path":"p13","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%."],"why":"VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p13/6","path":"p13","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p13/7","path":"p13","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":79.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,50.0]},{"id":"p13/8","path":"p13","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":99.0,"basis":["Accepted 55% vs rejected 45%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"Accepted 55% vs rejected 45%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p13/9","path":"p13","from":100874.133928584,"to":106651.47237216,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":139.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87), 104,898 passed; s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87), 104,898 passed; s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p13/10","path":"p13","from":106651.47237216,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":35.0,"arrival_day":174.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% pullback to the last reclaimed VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 103,035 gave way 1 of 1 from above (n 1, a guess)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% pullback to the last reclaimed VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 103,035 gave way 1 of 1 from above (n 1, a guess).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,80.0]},{"id":"p13/11","path":"p13","from":103035.030748923,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":254.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); VAH from below 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); VAH from below 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[30.0,160.0]},{"id":"p13/12","path":"p13","from":115992.363637308,"to":126208.0,"kind":"ath","owner":"ath@2025-10-06","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":111.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Liquidity bands 1,004/1,268/1,290/1,151 BTC at 117,300/121,875/124,150/126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); the ATH swept for the shorts and rejected at 1.50x — 2018's 3.4x is out of reach at peak_over_trend 1.25 vs 6.4."],"why":"Liquidity bands 1,004/1,268/1,290/1,151 BTC at 117,300/121,875/124,150/126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); the ATH swept for the shorts and rejected at 1.50x — 2018's 3.4x is out of reach at peak_over_trend 1.25 vs 6.4.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[50.0,200.0]}],"probability":0.035,"leg_product":0.00078402981888,"end":126208.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p14","name":"Up first, 90,000 rejects, everything to 72,992 chains, the 69,198 CME gap fills — swept and reclaimed — then a range 69,972↔79,628","legs":[{"id":"p14/1","path":"p14","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p14/2","path":"p14","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p14/3","path":"p14","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below and holds again."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below and holds again.","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p14/4","path":"p14","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":23.0,"basis":["Rejection at the POC rotates to VAL; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Rejection at the POC rotates to VAL; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p14/5","path":"p14","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":33.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p14/6","path":"p14","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":45.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p14/7","path":"p14","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p14/8","path":"p14","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":70.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — lost: 20d CVD −1.3% and 52 BTC of longs chain to the 919 at 72,992."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — lost: 20d CVD −1.3% and 52 BTC of longs chain to the 919 at 72,992.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p14/9","path":"p14","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":82.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at the untouched s27 range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at the untouched s27 range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p14/10","path":"p14","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":92.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) a detail; CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15) — swept and reclaimed, 0.82x, the 2018 template's 0.83 low."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) a detail; CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15) — swept and reclaimed, 0.82x, the 2018 template's 0.83 low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p14/11","path":"p14","from":69198.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.35,"days_median":35.0,"arrival_day":127.0,"basis":["69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8) so a hold is the minority read, 35%; 72,992 retaken (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8) so a hold is the minority read, 35%; 72,992 retaken (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,80.0]},{"id":"p14/12","path":"p14","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":238.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) on each approach: range 69,972↔79,628 for the rest of the year, ending at its top, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) on each approach: range 69,972↔79,628 for the rest of the year, ending at its top, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year.","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[90.0,330.0]}],"probability":0.035,"leg_product":0.0000786204610684416,"end":79628.305704497,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p15","name":"81,583 holds, 87,390 rejects — a range 81,583↔87,390 for two months, then 80,600 lost, 76,144 held, 72,992 swept, back to 85,522","legs":[{"id":"p15/1","path":"p15","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p15/2","path":"p15","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance under 82,817 even; s3 VAL 81,583 (14 touches, 113 BTC longs) swept: va70low from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); the 09-19 low taken and reclaimed."],"why":"Acceptance under 82,817 even; s3 VAL 81,583 (14 touches, 113 BTC longs) swept: va70low from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); the 09-19 low taken and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p15/3","path":"p15","from":81583.14037464,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p15/4","path":"p15","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept and sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier) is the edge."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept and sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier) is the edge.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p15/5","path":"p15","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":52.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42%; 85,522 a detail; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 rotates."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42%; 85,522 a detail; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 rotates.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p15/6","path":"p15","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":82.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); second sweep of 87,390 sold — the 09-21 high is a double top after two failures."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); second sweep of 87,390 sold — the 09-21 high is a double top after two failures.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p15/7","path":"p15","from":87389.54136519055,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":102.0,"basis":["Second rejection; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details on the third rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails on the third test."],"why":"Second rejection; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details on the third rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails on the third test.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p15/8","path":"p15","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":112.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, kind bounces 62% (n 81), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, kind bounces 62% (n 81), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p15/9","path":"p15","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":132.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected on the first retest from below."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected on the first retest from below.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p15/10","path":"p15","from":79628.305704497,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":157.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → the rotation reaches the range low; 76,144 lost on the second test (kind give-way 63%, n 81); 919 BTC of longs swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → the rotation reaches the range low; 76,144 lost on the second test (kind give-way 63%, n 81); 919 BTC of longs swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p15/11","path":"p15","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":217.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%) on the second approach."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%) on the second approach.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p15/12","path":"p15","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":148.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); 80,600 (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87) and 81,583 (from below held 4 of 4) retaken; year ends at s2's VAL, 1.01x — the 2014 template's flat year (end 0.93)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); 80,600 (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87) and 81,583 (from below held 4 of 4) retaken; year ends at s2's VAL, 1.01x — the 2014 template's flat year (end 0.93).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[60.0,240.0]}],"probability":0.035,"leg_product":0.0003642605601132961,"end":85521.97409094818,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p16","name":"79,628 holds the first flush, 87,390 rejects again, 79,628 lost on the second, 72,992 held then lost — 66,998 swept, range 66,998↔72,992","legs":[{"id":"p16/1","path":"p16","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p16/2","path":"p16","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p16/3","path":"p16","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p16/4","path":"p16","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":21.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45% give way; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45% give way; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p16/5","path":"p16","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":36.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145, walk 61%) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks (324 BTC) flushed; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145, walk 61%) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks (324 BTC) flushed; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p16/6","path":"p16","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":46.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept and sold — third rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept and sold — third rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p16/7","path":"p16","from":87389.54136519055,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":61.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected → 40% the rotation runs through s2's lower value (85,522, 82,817, 81,583 details) to the range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails on the second test."],"why":"Sweep rejected → 40% the rotation runs through s2's lower value (85,522, 82,817, 81,583 details) to the range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails on the second test.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p16/8","path":"p16","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":73.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 lost on its second test (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152); s27 VAL lost: kind gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%)."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 lost on its second test (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152); s27 VAL lost: kind gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p16/9","path":"p16","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":83.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p16/10","path":"p16","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":113.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected a fourth time."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected a fourth time.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p16/11","path":"p16","from":79628.305704497,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":153.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91); second test of the range low with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91); second test of the range low with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p16/12","path":"p16","from":72992.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":212.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills 92.7%) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x."],"why":"69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills 92.7%) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[90.0,300.0]}],"probability":0.03,"leg_product":0.0001851355745648641,"end":66997.90106991,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p17","name":"Up to 97,932 in a quarter, the sweep is sold, s2 value lost, 76,144 swept and reclaimed — a year that ends where it started","legs":[{"id":"p17/1","path":"p17","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p17/2","path":"p17","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,10.0]},{"id":"p17/3","path":"p17","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":12.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p17/4","path":"p17","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":22.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p17/5","path":"p17","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p17/6","path":"p17","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":52.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept and sold; the 2018 template's day-17 'high swept and rejected' at 1.06x."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept and sold; the 2018 template's day-17 'high swept and rejected' at 1.06x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p17/7","path":"p17","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":72.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) passed; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — fails."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) passed; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p17/8","path":"p17","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.47,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":87.0,"basis":["POC from above give-way 53% (n 94, walk 70%) → 47%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81); 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from above give-way 53% (n 94, walk 70%) → 47%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81); 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p17/9","path":"p17","from":85521.97409094818,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":112.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); 82,817 and 81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — lost."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); 82,817 and 81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — lost.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p17/10","path":"p17","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":137.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — 0.90x."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — 0.90x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p17/11","path":"p17","from":76143.964285736,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":197.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 79,628 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) and 80,600 (rangelow from below 69%, n 87) retaken; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%) — rejected on the first return."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 79,628 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) and 80,600 (rangelow from below 69%, n 87) retaken; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%) — rejected on the first return.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p17/12","path":"p17","from":85521.97409094818,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":168.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 42% the rotation returns to s27's VAL; range 76,144↔85,522 to year end, ending at its low, 0.90x — the 2014 template (end 0.93)."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 42% the rotation returns to s27's VAL; range 76,144↔85,522 to year end, ending at its low, 0.90x — the 2014 template (end 0.93).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[70.0,270.0]}],"probability":0.03,"leg_product":0.00035951843522996353,"end":76143.964285736,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p18","name":"Grind: 82,817↔85,522 range, then 87,390, then 81,583↔87,390 range, then a break-and-retest ladder to 109,996","legs":[{"id":"p18/1","path":"p18","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p18/2","path":"p18","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the first retest from below is sold."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the first retest from below is sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p18/3","path":"p18","from":85521.97409094818,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":21.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 36% the rejection reaches the sweep level again vs 87,390; 82,817 holds a second time — kind unmeasured, walk."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 36% the rejection reaches the sweep level again vs 87,390; 82,817 holds a second time — kind unmeasured, walk.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p18/4","path":"p18","from":82817.2648093112,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":36.0,"basis":["Second reclaim of 82,817; VAL 85,522 from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"Second reclaim of 82,817; VAL 85,522 from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p18/5","path":"p18","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":61.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42% of a return to s3's VAL vs 90,000; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42% of a return to s3's VAL vs 90,000; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p18/6","path":"p18","from":81583.14037464,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":86.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 87,390 breaks on the third test (kind unmeasured, a guess); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 87,390 breaks on the third test (kind unmeasured, a guess); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p18/7","path":"p18","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":106.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the retest reaches s2 VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) — holds."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the retest reaches s2 VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) — holds.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p18/8","path":"p18","from":85521.97409094818,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":146.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 90,000 retaken, VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 90,000 retaken, VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p18/9","path":"p18","from":96481.1555268,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":176.0,"basis":["POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p18/10","path":"p18","from":89999.752228305,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":226.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 96,481 and 97,932 (rangehigh from below bounces 38%, n 156; 1,865 BTC shorts) passed; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 96,481 and 97,932 (rangehigh from below bounces 38%, n 156; 1,865 BTC shorts) passed; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p18/11","path":"p18","from":100874.133928584,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":271.0,"basis":["HVN low from below bounce 46% (n 96) → 42%; pullback to the last reclaimed level; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"HVN low from below bounce 46% (n 96) → 42%; pullback to the last reclaimed level; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p18/12","path":"p18","from":96481.1555268,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":94.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 103,035 (VAL from below 70%, n 87), 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; s23 POC by year end, 1.30x."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 103,035 (VAL from below 70%, n 87), 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; s23 POC by year end, 1.30x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,180.0]}],"probability":0.03,"leg_product":0.00017370475702272004,"end":109995.684938239,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p19","name":"85,522 rejects, 81,583 lost, 79,628 holds — then a year in s2's range 80,600↔87,390 that breaks late to 96,481","legs":[{"id":"p19/1","path":"p19","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): 60 BTC of shorts swept and the level sold."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): 60 BTC of shorts swept and the level sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p19/2","path":"p19","from":85521.97409094818,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection reaches 82,817; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection reaches 82,817; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p19/3","path":"p19","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":11.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but its own 2 of 2 from above gave way (n 2, a guess); 113 BTC longs taken."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but its own 2 of 2 from above gave way (n 2, a guess); 113 BTC longs taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p19/4","path":"p19","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); s2 range low with 91 BTC of longs; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); s2 range low with 91 BTC of longs; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p19/5","path":"p19","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":25.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p19/6","path":"p19","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":40.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks flushed; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks flushed; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p19/7","path":"p19","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":55.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept, sold — second rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept, sold — second rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p19/8","path":"p19","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":85.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p19/9","path":"p19","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":130.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); third sweep of 87,390 sold — the range's top."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); third sweep of 87,390 sold — the range's top.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p19/10","path":"p19","from":87389.54136519055,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":190.0,"basis":["Third rejection → the range widens to s2's low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%): 80,600↔87,390 for a quarter, the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82, weeks 10–45)."],"why":"Third rejection → the range widens to s2's low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%): 80,600↔87,390 for a quarter, the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82, weeks 10–45).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p19/11","path":"p19","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":250.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); 87,390 breaks on the fourth test; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); retested and held."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); 87,390 breaks on the fourth test; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p19/12","path":"p19","from":89999.752228305,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":115.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); year ends at s3's POC, 1.14x."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); year ends at s3's POC, 1.14x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[50.0,200.0]}],"probability":0.03,"leg_product":0.00025054162880947206,"end":96481.1555268,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p20","name":"2018 template in full: 85,522 retest holds, 97,932 accepted, s3 VAH, s23 VAH, the ATH swept and accepted","legs":[{"id":"p20/1","path":"p20","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p20/2","path":"p20","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p20/3","path":"p20","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p20/4","path":"p20","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":25.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch rotates to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch rotates to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p20/5","path":"p20","from":85521.97409094818,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":40.0,"basis":["Retest held; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"Retest held; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p20/6","path":"p20","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p20/7","path":"p20","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":80.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC of shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC of shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,50.0]},{"id":"p20/8","path":"p20","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":100.0,"basis":["Accepted 55%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"Accepted 55%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p20/9","path":"p20","from":100874.133928584,"to":106651.47237216,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":145.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,100.0]},{"id":"p20/10","path":"p20","from":106651.47237216,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":205.0,"basis":["POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); s23 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990; retested and held."],"why":"POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); s23 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990; retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p20/11","path":"p20","from":115992.363637308,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.52,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":285.0,"basis":["Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, HVN high 119,508 (from below gives way 80%, n 107), 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150."],"why":"Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, HVN high 119,508 (from below gives way 80%, n 107), 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[35.0,160.0]},{"id":"p20/12","path":"p20","from":124150.0,"to":126208.0,"kind":"ath","owner":"ath@2025-10-06","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,151 BTC of shorts at the ATH swept and accepted at 1.50x — the 2018 (1.9x) and 2022 (1.66x) template year-ends; analogs +51 to +98% at 365d."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,151 BTC of shorts at the ATH swept and accepted at 1.50x — the 2018 (1.9x) and 2022 (1.66x) template year-ends; analogs +51 to +98% at 365d.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[35.0,160.0]}],"probability":0.025,"leg_product":0.0006039221325096959,"end":126208.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p21","name":"87,390 rejects at once, 81,583 holds for two months, then the range breaks down: s27 lost, 66,998 lost, 63,603 held — a 0.75x year","legs":[{"id":"p21/1","path":"p21","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p21/2","path":"p21","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390's 113 BTC of shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390's 113 BTC of shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p21/3","path":"p21","from":87389.54136519055,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 42%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Sweep rejected 42%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p21/4","path":"p21","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":21.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42% give way; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42% give way; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p21/5","path":"p21","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":51.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 retaken; second sweep of 87,390 sold."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 retaken; second sweep of 87,390 sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p21/6","path":"p21","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":91.0,"basis":["Kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 for two months."],"why":"Kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 for two months.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p21/7","path":"p21","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":111.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 38% give way on the third test; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails: the 09-18 breakout fully retraced."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 38% give way on the third test; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails: the 09-18 breakout fully retraced.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p21/8","path":"p21","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":126.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p21/9","path":"p21","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":138.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p21/10","path":"p21","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":150.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 passed; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8), CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 passed; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8), CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p21/11","path":"p21","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":165.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94) — fails against 2,919 BTC of longs with 7,473 more at 65,352 pulling."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94) — fails against 2,919 BTC of longs with 7,473 more at 65,352 pulling.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p21/12","path":"p21","from":66997.90106991,"to":63603.075312452,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":200.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC) swept inside the leg; s24 VAH held or bounced 18 of 29 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 2,897 BTC longs swept and reclaimed; range 63,603↔69,972 to year end, 0.75x — the 2022 template low."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC) swept inside the leg; s24 VAH held or bounced 18 of 29 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 2,897 BTC longs swept and reclaimed; range 63,603↔69,972 to year end, 0.75x — the 2022 template low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[80.0,300.0]}],"probability":0.025,"leg_product":0.00008888826970962892,"end":63603.075312452,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p22","name":"Crash: every level from 82,817 to 60,994 chains, 57,759 (the cycle low) swept and reclaimed — 0.68x, then a range 57,759↔66,998","legs":[{"id":"p22/1","path":"p22","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p22/2","path":"p22","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p22/3","path":"p22","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p22/4","path":"p22","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2)."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p22/5","path":"p22","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/6","path":"p22","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/7","path":"p22","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/8","path":"p22","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/9","path":"p22","from":66997.90106991,"to":65352.18750017,"kind":"hvnhigh","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":67.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs, 16 of 37 gave way from above) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs, 16 of 37 gave way from above) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p22/10","path":"p22","from":65352.18750017,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":79.0,"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 BTC of longs at it and 6,057 at 60,048 chain to the cycle low."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 BTC of longs at it and 6,057 at 60,048 chain to the cycle low.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p22/11","path":"p22","from":60994.00623924,"to":57758.6,"kind":"cyclelow","owner":"cycle","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":14.0,"arrival_day":93.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 (s25 VAL, held 4 of 4 from above) a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the 2026-07-01 low swept — the cycle low's unfinished business — and reclaimed on the reset; 0.68x, between 2022's 0.76 and 2014's 0.49."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 (s25 VAL, held 4 of 4 from above) a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the 2026-07-01 low swept — the cycle low's unfinished business — and reclaimed on the reset; 0.68x, between 2022's 0.76 and 2014's 0.49.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p22/12","path":"p22","from":57758.6,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":272.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Cycle-low reclaim: rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the nearest kind; 60,994 POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); s25 POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) — range 57,759↔66,998 for the rest of the year, ending near its top, 0.79x."],"why":"Cycle-low reclaim: rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the nearest kind; 60,994 POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); s25 POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) — range 57,759↔66,998 for the rest of the year, ending near its top, 0.79x.","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[100.0,330.0]}],"probability":0.02,"leg_product":0.00009791639339327999,"end":66997.90106991,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p23","name":"Reclaim, s2 POC retest holds, 97,932 rejected — a range 92,201↔97,932 for five months, then the break to 103,035","legs":[{"id":"p23/1","path":"p23","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p23/2","path":"p23","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p23/3","path":"p23","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p23/4","path":"p23","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p23/5","path":"p23","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; the untested VAH's 24 BTC shorts swept — and sold on the first touch, bounce 35% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; the untested VAH's 24 BTC shorts swept — and sold on the first touch, bounce 35% (n 91).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p23/6","path":"p23","from":92201.00891283,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 38% the pullback reaches the POC rather than 96,481; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — holds."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 38% the pullback reaches the POC rather than 96,481; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — holds.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p23/7","path":"p23","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":74.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 92,201 (80%, n 91), 93,909 (80%, n 107), 96,481 (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 92,201 (80%, n 91), 93,909 (80%, n 107), 96,481 (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p23/8","path":"p23","from":97932.0,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":104.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%) — the range's low."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%) — the range's low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p23/9","path":"p23","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":149.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); second sweep of the range high sold: rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); second sweep of the range high sold: rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p23/10","path":"p23","from":97932.0,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":194.0,"basis":["Second rejection; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145); range 92,201↔97,932 (s2's upper quarter) rotates."],"why":"Second rejection; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145); range 92,201↔97,932 (s2's upper quarter) rotates.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p23/11","path":"p23","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":254.0,"basis":["Third approach breaks: shorts rebuilt at 98,000–100,450 (3,374 BTC) are the fuel; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158)."],"why":"Third approach breaks: shorts rebuilt at 98,000–100,450 (3,374 BTC) are the fuel; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158).","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p23/12","path":"p23","from":97932.0,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":111.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); year ends at s23's VAL, 1.22x."],"why":"HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); year ends at s23's VAL, 1.22x.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[50.0,200.0]}],"probability":0.02,"leg_product":0.0004955511052800001,"end":103035.030748923,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p24","name":"Up to 96,481, rejected, all the way back to 81,583 which holds — then 90,000↔97,932 for the rest of the year","legs":[{"id":"p24/1","path":"p24","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p24/2","path":"p24","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,10.0]},{"id":"p24/3","path":"p24","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":12.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p24/4","path":"p24","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":22.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p24/5","path":"p24","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107) to reach s3's POC; there poc from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) — the untested POC's 18 BTC shorts swept and sold, CME gap 95,600–95,665 filled."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107) to reach s3's POC; there poc from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) — the untested POC's 18 BTC shorts swept and sold, CME gap 95,600–95,665 filled.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p24/6","path":"p24","from":96481.1555268,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":57.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 44% the rotation runs through 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) and 90,000 (POC from above gives way 53%, n 94) to s2's VAL — lost, 2 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 44% the rotation runs through 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) and 90,000 (POC from above gives way 53%, n 94) to s2's VAL — lost, 2 of 2 from above.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p24/7","path":"p24","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":77.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed — the 0.786 pocket of the 09-18 → 96k leg."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed — the 0.786 pocket of the 09-18 → 96k leg.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p24/8","path":"p24","from":81583.14037464,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":117.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 (70%, n 87) and 87,390 retaken; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 (70%, n 87) and 87,390 retaken; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p24/9","path":"p24","from":89999.752228305,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":157.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second approach."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second approach.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p24/10","path":"p24","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":187.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p24/11","path":"p24","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":247.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): range 90,000↔97,932."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): range 90,000↔97,932.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p24/12","path":"p24","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":118.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); the range's top reached again by year end, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); the range's top reached again by year end, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158).","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[50.0,200.0]}],"probability":0.02,"leg_product":0.0005544469731925555,"end":97932.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p25","name":"Full bear: the cycle low gives way, 53,245 (s24 range low, the 53,695–54,545 CME gap) swept and held — 0.63x","legs":[{"id":"p25/1","path":"p25","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p25/2","path":"p25","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p25/3","path":"p25","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p25/4","path":"p25","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2)."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p25/5","path":"p25","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/6","path":"p25","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/7","path":"p25","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/8","path":"p25","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/9","path":"p25","from":66997.90106991,"to":65352.18750017,"kind":"hvnhigh","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":67.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p25/10","path":"p25","from":65352.18750017,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":79.0,"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 + 6,057 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 + 6,057 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p25/11","path":"p25","from":60994.00623924,"to":57758.6,"kind":"cyclelow","owner":"cycle","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":14.0,"arrival_day":93.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the cycle low swept and not reclaimed — rangelow kind from above bounces 54% (n 91), so acceptance is the minority read."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the cycle low swept and not reclaimed — rangelow kind from above bounces 54% (n 91), so acceptance is the minority read.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p25/12","path":"p25","from":57758.6,"to":53245.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":272.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 40% give way; 55,666 (s24 VAL, held 16 of 18 from above, 3,617 BTC longs) passed; s24 range low held 6 of 6 from above (n 6), CME gap 53,695–54,545 fills (92.7% of 454) — swept and held, then range 53,245↔60,994 to year end, 0.63x — the 2014 template (0.49 low, 0.63–0.72 range)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 40% give way; 55,666 (s24 VAL, held 16 of 18 from above, 3,617 BTC longs) passed; s24 range low held 6 of 6 from above (n 6), CME gap 53,695–54,545 fills (92.7% of 454) — swept and held, then range 53,245↔60,994 to year end, 0.63x — the 2014 template (0.49 low, 0.63–0.72 range).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[100.0,330.0]}],"probability":0.015,"leg_product":0.00006527759559552,"end":53245.0,"end_day":365.0},{"id":"p26","name":"s2 range 80,600↔90,000 for two quarters, then the late break: 97,932, 100,874, 109,996, 124,150 — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, larger","legs":[{"id":"p26/1","path":"p26","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p26/2","path":"p26","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p26/3","path":"p26","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p26/4","path":"p26","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below, poc from below bounces 54% (n 67)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below, poc from below bounces 54% (n 67).","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p26/5","path":"p26","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), 91 BTC of longs swept."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), 91 BTC of longs swept.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p26/6","path":"p26","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":94.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p26/7","path":"p26","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":134.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — holds a third time, the range's low is finished."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — holds a third time, the range's low is finished.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p26/8","path":"p26","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":174.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) on the third approach; retested and held."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) on the third approach; retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p26/9","path":"p26","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":219.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 (80%, n 91), HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept."],"why":"VAH 92,201 (80%, n 91), HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p26/10","path":"p26","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":249.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted 55%; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeezed."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55%; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeezed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p26/11","path":"p26","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":299.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH 106,651 from below 80% (n 91); s23 POC."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH 106,651 from below 80% (n 91); s23 POC.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p26/12","path":"p26","from":109995.684938239,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":66.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91); liquidity bands 1,268/1,290 BTC at 121,875/124,150; a 13% trend leg in 66 days is the fast end of the tape (10% ≈ 18 days for a walk) — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, 1.47x here."],"why":"VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91); liquidity bands 1,268/1,290 BTC at 121,875/124,150; a 13% trend leg in 66 days is the fast end of the tape (10% ≈ 18 days for a walk) — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, 1.47x here.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,140.0]}],"probability":0.015,"leg_product":0.0005706476160000002,"end":124150.0,"end_day":365.0}],"nodes":[{"id":"p1/1","path":"p1","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44% from 1.4%/1.8% distances) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% of volume, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; swept and reclaimed on the 1h hidden CVD bull div (untested tier)."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44% from 1.4%/1.8% distances) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% of volume, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; swept and reclaimed on the 1h hidden CVD bull div (untested tier).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p1/2","path":"p1","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance is even: VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but 81,583's own 2 of 2 from above gave way; the −11,685 BTC taker delta of 09-22 was absorbed; s2 VAL (held 1 of 1 from below) retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance is even: VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but 81,583's own 2 of 2 from above gave way; the −11,685 BTC taker delta of 09-22 was absorbed; s2 VAL (held 1 of 1 from below) retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p1/3","path":"p1","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); with the 82,817 longs flushed the 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 are the only fuel above and are swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); with the 82,817 longs flushed the 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 are the only fuel above and are swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p1/4","path":"p1","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC of shorts at 90,000 is no wall; 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC of shorts at 90,000 is no wall; 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p1/5","path":"p1","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounces only 35% (n 91, walk 46%) and gives way 80%; s2 closed inside value 77% of days so the top of value is the exit."],"why":"VAH from below bounces only 35% (n 91, walk 46%) and gives way 80%; s2 closed inside value 77% of days so the top of value is the exit.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p1/6","path":"p1","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%), a detail on the way to s3's POC; 18 BTC of shorts at 96,481; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%), a detail on the way to s3's POC; 18 BTC of shorts at 96,481; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p1/7","path":"p1","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":84.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 CME gap pull price through it; the sweep is sold."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 CME gap pull price through it; the sweep is sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p1/8","path":"p1","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":124.0,"basis":["POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): value re-anchors at s2's POC while the shorts above 92,201 rebuild; range 90,000↔97,932."],"why":"POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): value re-anchors at s2's POC while the shorts above 92,201 rebuild; range 90,000↔97,932.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p1/9","path":"p1","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":174.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts stacked 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break."],"why":"Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts stacked 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p1/10","path":"p1","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":214.0,"basis":["HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 1,124 BTC of shorts at 100,874 and 1,180 at 99,325 are the squeeze fuel; retested from above and held."],"why":"HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 1,124 BTC of shorts at 100,874 and 1,180 at 99,325 are the squeeze fuel; retested from above and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p1/11","path":"p1","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":75.0,"arrival_day":289.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23's POC is where 185 days of business was done; 2018 template is 1.3x by week 18."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23's POC is where 185 days of business was done; 2018 template is 1.3x by week 18.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,150.0]},{"id":"p1/12","path":"p1","from":109995.684938239,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":76.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990 above; year ends 1.37x, inside the 2022 template's band."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990 above; year ends 1.37x, inside the 2022 template's band.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,150.0]},{"id":"p2/1","path":"p2","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7%, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; here the wick is not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7%, today's 83,450 LL and 120 BTC of longs under 82,817; here the wick is not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p2/2","path":"p2","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance under 82,817 is even (reclaim 50%); s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC of longs under it."],"why":"Acceptance under 82,817 is even (reclaim 50%); s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC of longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p2/3","path":"p2","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":7.0,"arrival_day":14.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) → 46% vs a hold; s2 range low 80,600 (91 BTC longs) is the bad low of the 09-18 breakout, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), a real edge, reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) → 46% vs a hold; s2 range low 80,600 (91 BTC longs) is the bad low of the 09-18 breakout, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), a real edge, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p2/4","path":"p2","from":80600.0,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":26.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) with the 81,583–82,817 stacks flushed; 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward (from below gives way 70%, n 87)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) with the 81,583–82,817 stacks flushed; 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward (from below gives way 70%, n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p2/5","path":"p2","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":36.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the retest of the 09-21 high."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the retest of the 09-21 high.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p2/6","path":"p2","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":48.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p2/7","path":"p2","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":63.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%; 24 BTC of shorts at it."],"why":"VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%; 24 BTC of shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p2/8","path":"p2","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":103.0,"basis":["93,909 HVN high (from below gives way 80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) are passed inside the leg; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 pull price through."],"why":"93,909 HVN high (from below gives way 80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) are passed inside the leg; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 pull price through.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p2/9","path":"p2","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":143.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted 55%: HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts at 99,325–100,874 squeezed; retested from above, held."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55%: HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts at 99,325–100,874 squeezed; retested from above, held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p2/10","path":"p2","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":70.0,"arrival_day":213.0,"basis":["s23 VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is 185 days of value; 2018/2022 templates are 1.3–1.4x by week 20."],"why":"s23 VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is 185 days of value; 2018/2022 templates are 1.3–1.4x by week 20.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,140.0]},{"id":"p2/11","path":"p2","from":109995.684938239,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":273.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled CME gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p2/12","path":"p2","from":115992.363637308,"to":126208.0,"kind":"ath","owner":"ath@2025-10-06","direction":"up","probability":0.42,"days_median":92.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Above VAH the ladder is liquidity: 1,268 BTC at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150, 1,151 at 126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); the ATH is swept for the shorts and rejected — the 2014 template's 1.16x high at week 50, scaled."],"why":"Above VAH the ladder is liquidity: 1,268 BTC at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150, 1,151 at 126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); the ATH is swept for the shorts and rejected — the 2014 template's 1.16x high at week 50, scaled.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[40.0,180.0]},{"id":"p3/1","path":"p3","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk from 1.4%/1.8% gives 56% up but 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3% of volume and today's 83,450 LL take it to 45%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it; 7 bull signals graded 90% but untested tier."],"why":"Walk from 1.4%/1.8% gives 56% up but 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3% of volume and today's 83,450 LL take it to 45%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it; 7 bull signals graded 90% but untested tier.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p3/2","path":"p3","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%) and 85,522 held 1 of 1 from below; 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high get swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%) and 85,522 held 1 of 1 from below; 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high get swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p3/3","path":"p3","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) once the shorts are cleared; 59 BTC shorts at 90,000 is no wall."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) once the shorts are cleared; 59 BTC shorts at 90,000 is no wall.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p3/4","path":"p3","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":25.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch of s2's POC rotates back to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch of s2's POC rotates back to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p3/5","path":"p3","from":85521.97409094818,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":40.0,"basis":["Retest held (VAL from above bounce 62%, n 81); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%), 24 BTC shorts at it."],"why":"Retest held (VAL from above bounce 62%, n 81); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%), 24 BTC shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p3/6","path":"p3","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); s3 POC is the cycle range's value centre; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); s3 POC is the cycle range's value centre; CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p3/7","path":"p3","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":80.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 gap are the pull; first sweep rejected."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and the 97,700–97,965 gap are the pull; first sweep rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,50.0]},{"id":"p3/8","path":"p3","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":110.0,"basis":["POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%); 90,000↔97,932 is s2's upper half re-auctioned."],"why":"POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%); 90,000↔97,932 is s2's upper half re-auctioned.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p3/9","path":"p3","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":170.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%) so holding is more likely than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break."],"why":"Rangehigh from above gives way 53% (n 158, walk 68%) so holding is more likely than the walk, but 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 tilt the second break.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p3/10","path":"p3","from":97932.0,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":215.0,"basis":["HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96) inside the leg; s23 VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); retested and held."],"why":"HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96) inside the leg; s23 VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,100.0]},{"id":"p3/11","path":"p3","from":103035.030748923,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":275.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 HVN and 106,651 s3 VAH (from below gives way 80%, n 91) are passed."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 HVN and 106,651 s3 VAH (from below gives way 80%, n 91) are passed.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p3/12","path":"p3","from":109995.684938239,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":90.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91) then only liquidity bands: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; the 2022 template tops near 1.47x."],"why":"VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91) then only liquidity bands: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; the 2022 template tops near 1.47x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,180.0]},{"id":"p4/1","path":"p4","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs under 82,817 taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs under 82,817 taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p4/2","path":"p4","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance is even; s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Acceptance is even; s3 VAL 81,583 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) against the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p4/3","path":"p4","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the edge that fails here: the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open is the unfinished business."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the edge that fails here: the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open is the unfinished business.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p4/4","path":"p4","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above holds 54% (n 91) → give-way 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), but 75 BTC of longs under it and 20d CVD −1.3% keep the flush going."],"why":"Rangelow from above holds 54% (n 91) → give-way 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), but 75 BTC of longs under it and 20d CVD −1.3% keep the flush going.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p4/5","path":"p4","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; 76,999 POC is a detail inside s27 value; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, 27 BTC longs swept, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — the 2022 template's 0.76 low maps to 64k, this stops at 0.90."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; 76,999 POC is a detail inside s27 value; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, 27 BTC longs swept, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — the 2022 template's 0.76 low maps to 64k, this stops at 0.90.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p4/6","path":"p4","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":44.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) with both ends of s27 value swept; 79,628 retested from below (VAH from below gives way 80%, n 91)."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) with both ends of s27 value swept; 79,628 retested from below (VAH from below gives way 80%, n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p4/7","path":"p4","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":69.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); 80,600 and 81,583 retaken as details; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); 80,600 and 81,583 retaken as details; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,55.0]},{"id":"p4/8","path":"p4","from":85521.97409094818,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":99.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the way; a trend leg whose pullbacks hold the last reclaimed level 85,522 (VAL from above bounces 62%, n 81), higher lows along the way."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); 87,390 shorts (113 BTC) swept on the way; a trend leg whose pullbacks hold the last reclaimed level 85,522 (VAL from above bounces 62%, n 81), higher lows along the way.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p4/9","path":"p4","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":149.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the CME gap pull the sweep."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156) but 1,865 BTC of shorts and the CME gap pull the sweep.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p4/10","path":"p4","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":189.0,"basis":["HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts 99,325–100,874."],"why":"HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 2,300 BTC of shorts 99,325–100,874.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p4/11","path":"p4","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":269.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is the destination value; 2022 template 1.3x at week 21."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87); s23 POC is the destination value; 2022 template 1.3x at week 21.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,160.0]},{"id":"p4/12","path":"p4","from":109995.684938239,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":96.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); the year ends near s23's VAH, 1.37x, inside the 2018/2022 template band (1.3–1.9x)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); the year ends near s23's VAH, 1.37x, inside the 2018/2022 template band (1.3–1.9x).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,180.0]},{"id":"p5/1","path":"p5","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept and the level reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept and the level reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p5/2","path":"p5","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested from below and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p5/3","path":"p5","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts are swept but the sweep is sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m regular CVD bear div (untested tier) is the only edge for the rejection."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); the 87,390 shorts are swept but the sweep is sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m regular CVD bear div (untested tier) is the only edge for the rejection.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p5/4","path":"p5","from":87389.54136519055,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 is a detail on the way down; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) loses its hold on the second test — kind unmeasured, a guess."],"why":"Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 is a detail on the way down; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) loses its hold on the second test — kind unmeasured, a guess.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p5/5","path":"p5","from":82817.2648093112,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["81,583 passed as a detail (its own 2 of 2 gave way from above); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"81,583 passed as a detail (its own 2 of 2 gave way from above); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p5/6","path":"p5","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":77.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) and POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): s2's range 80,600↔90,000 re-auctions, 77% of s2 closes were inside value."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) and POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): s2's range 80,600↔90,000 re-auctions, 77% of s2 closes were inside value.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p5/7","path":"p5","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":137.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91): the 2014 template (weeks 10–45 between 0.63 and 0.82) mapped onto s2's range."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91): the 2014 template (weeks 10–45 between 0.63 and 0.82) mapped onto s2's range.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p5/8","path":"p5","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":197.0,"basis":["Third approach to the POC: poc from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) after two holds; 87,390 shorts rebuilt and taken."],"why":"Third approach to the POC: poc from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) after two holds; 87,390 shorts rebuilt and taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p5/9","path":"p5","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":222.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,55.0]},{"id":"p5/10","path":"p5","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":252.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p5/11","path":"p5","from":96481.1555268,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":282.0,"basis":["POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed level; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed level; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p5/12","path":"p5","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":83.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965; the year ends with the sweep of s2's high, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965; the year ends with the sweep of s2's high, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[30.0,160.0]},{"id":"p6/1","path":"p6","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%), 60 BTC of shorts at it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p6/2","path":"p6","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at the 09-21 high swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p6/3","path":"p6","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29 and holds again."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below on 2026-01-29 and holds again.","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p6/4","path":"p6","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":23.0,"basis":["Rejection at the POC rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 85,522 has given way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Rejection at the POC rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 85,522 has given way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p6/5","path":"p6","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":33.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → retest fails 42%; 82,817 (120 BTC longs) a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → retest fails 42%; 82,817 (120 BTC longs) a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2, a guess).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p6/6","path":"p6","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":45.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails against 91 BTC of longs beneath."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails against 91 BTC of longs beneath.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p6/7","path":"p6","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above but the 09-18 breakout bar is retraced in full."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above but the 09-18 breakout bar is retraced in full.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p6/8","path":"p6","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":75.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81), held 1 of 1, 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — the 2018 template's 0.83 low (day 12) is 70k, this is 0.90."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81), held 1 of 1, 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — the 2018 template's 0.83 low (day 12) is 70k, this is 0.90.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p6/9","path":"p6","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":105.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p6/10","path":"p6","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":155.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); s2 VAL retested from below a second time."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); s2 VAL retested from below a second time.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p6/11","path":"p6","from":85521.97409094818,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":100.0,"arrival_day":255.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second visit; 85,522↔90,000 rotates inside s2 value (77% of closes) for a quarter first."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second visit; 85,522↔90,000 rotates inside s2 value (77% of closes) for a quarter first.","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[40.0,200.0]},{"id":"p6/12","path":"p6","from":89999.752228305,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":110.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); s3 POC is where the year ends, 1.14x."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91) and HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); s3 POC is where the year ends, 1.14x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,200.0]},{"id":"p7/1","path":"p7","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p7/2","path":"p7","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs the kind's 62% bounce (n 81, walk 57%); 113 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p7/3","path":"p7","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p7/4","path":"p7","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p7/5","path":"p7","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above but 52 BTC of longs at 76,999/76,144 chain with OI unknown today."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above but 52 BTC of longs at 76,999/76,144 chain with OI unknown today.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/6","path":"p7","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81) → 42%; 73,881 (s25 range high, 6 of 13 held from above) a detail; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are magnet and fuel; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81) → 42%; 73,881 (s25 range high, 6 of 13 held from above) a detail; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are magnet and fuel; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/7","path":"p7","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 44%; 71,538 and 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside the leg; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 44%; 71,538 and 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside the leg; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/8","path":"p7","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above; 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.79x, the 2022 template's 0.76 low."],"why":"69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above; 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.79x, the 2022 template's 0.76 low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p7/9","path":"p7","from":66997.90106991,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":84.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15); rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87, walk 64%)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15); rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87, walk 64%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p7/10","path":"p7","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":134.0,"basis":["Rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — first approach rejected."],"why":"Rangelow from below gives way 69% (n 87); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — first approach rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p7/11","path":"p7","from":79628.305704497,"to":69971.667112755,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":100.0,"arrival_day":234.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% the rotation returns to the range low; s25 VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 857 BTC of longs under it; range 69,972↔79,628."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% the rotation returns to the range low; s25 VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 857 BTC of longs under it; range 69,972↔79,628.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[40.0,180.0]},{"id":"p7/12","path":"p7","from":69971.667112755,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":131.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145): the range holds its low; year ends at the top of s27 value, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year mapped onto s25/s27 value."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145): the range holds its low; year ends at the top of s27 value, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year mapped onto s25/s27 value.","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[50.0,220.0]},{"id":"p8/1","path":"p8","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the 60 BTC of shorts at 85,522 are swept and the level sold."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the 60 BTC of shorts at 85,522 are swept and the level sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p8/2","path":"p8","from":85521.97409094818,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection travels to 82,817 rather than lifting; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection travels to 82,817 rather than lifting; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p8/3","path":"p8","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":11.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; 113 BTC of longs at 81,583 are the next fuel; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 14 touches; the 09-19 low swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; 113 BTC of longs at 81,583 are the next fuel; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 14 touches; the 09-19 low swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p8/4","path":"p8","from":81583.14037464,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":23.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below, gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below, gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p8/5","path":"p8","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":33.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p8/6","path":"p8","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":45.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p8/7","path":"p8","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":57.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; first touch of an untested VAH (0 touches) sweeps 24 BTC of shorts and is sold — bounce 35% (n 91, walk 46%)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; first touch of an untested VAH (0 touches) sweeps 24 BTC of shorts and is sold — bounce 35% (n 91, walk 46%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p8/8","path":"p8","from":92201.00891283,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":72.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40%: failure above VAH rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40%: failure above VAH rotates to the other side of value; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p8/9","path":"p8","from":85521.97409094818,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":132.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); s2 value 85,522↔92,201 rotates (77% of s2 closes inside value) until VAH gives way — from below 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); s2 value 85,522↔92,201 rotates (77% of s2 closes inside value) until VAH gives way — from below 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p8/10","path":"p8","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":172.0,"basis":["93,909 HVN high (80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, rejected."],"why":"93,909 HVN high (80%, n 107) and 96,481 POC (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p8/11","path":"p8","from":97932.0,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":217.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounce 38% (n 156) → 45% the pullback reaches the last reclaimed level; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%)."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounce 38% (n 156) → 45% the pullback reaches the last reclaimed level; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p8/12","path":"p8","from":92201.00891283,"to":106651.47237216,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":148.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); 97,932 breaks on the retest (rangehigh from above gives way 53%, n 158), 100,874 HVN low from below 77% (n 96), 103,035 VAL 70% (n 87); s3 VAH is 1.26x by year end."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); 97,932 breaks on the retest (rangehigh from above gives way 53%, n 158), 100,874 HVN low from below 77% (n 96), 103,035 VAL 70% (n 87); s3 VAH is 1.26x by year end.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[60.0,240.0]},{"id":"p9/1","path":"p9","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and today's 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p9/2","path":"p9","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p9/3","path":"p9","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p9/4","path":"p9","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2); 75 BTC longs."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2); 75 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p9/5","path":"p9","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain, OI unknown."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain, OI unknown.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/6","path":"p9","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/7","path":"p9","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/8","path":"p9","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — but 2,919 BTC of longs at it and 7,473 at 65,352 are the largest stacks within 25%: the cascade continues."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — but 2,919 BTC of longs at it and 7,473 at 65,352 are the largest stacks within 25%: the cascade continues.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p9/9","path":"p9","from":66997.90106991,"to":65352.18750017,"kind":"hvnhigh","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":67.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (41 touches: 7 held / 14 bounced / 16 gave way from above) carries 7,473 BTC of longs — the magnet; HVN high from above bounces 65% (n 141) but the stack is the fuel."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (41 touches: 7 held / 14 bounced / 16 gave way from above) carries 7,473 BTC of longs — the magnet; HVN high from above bounces 65% (n 141) but the stack is the fuel.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p9/10","path":"p9","from":65352.18750017,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":82.0,"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 (2,897 BTC) a detail inside s24 value; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94); 6,704 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.72x, between the 2022 (0.76) and 2014 (0.49) lows."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 (2,897 BTC) a detail inside s24 value; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94); 6,704 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed — 0.72x, between the 2022 (0.76) and 2014 (0.49) lows.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p9/11","path":"p9","from":60994.00623924,"to":69971.667112755,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s25","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":142.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94, walk 53%) with the 60,994–66,998 stacks flushed; 63,603 and 65,352 from below (hvnhigh gives way 80%, n 107) passed; s25 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — rejected."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94, walk 53%) with the 60,994–66,998 stacks flushed; 63,603 and 65,352 from below (hvnhigh gives way 80%, n 107) passed; s25 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) — rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p9/12","path":"p9","from":69971.667112755,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":223.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → rotation back to s24's POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94): range 60,994↔69,972 for the rest of the year — the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82) mapped onto s24/s25 value."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → rotation back to s24's POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94): range 60,994↔69,972 for the rest of the year — the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82) mapped onto s24/s25 value.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[90.0,300.0]},{"id":"p10/1","path":"p10","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p10/2","path":"p10","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); s2 VAL retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p10/3","path":"p10","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 87,390 shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 87,390 shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p10/4","path":"p10","from":87389.54136519055,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 a detail; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) lost on the second test — a guess, kind unmeasured."],"why":"Second failure at the 09-21 high; 85,522 a detail; Sweep 82,817 (120 BTC longs) lost on the second test — a guess, kind unmeasured.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p10/5","path":"p10","from":82817.2648093112,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":35.0,"basis":["81,583 a detail; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails this time: 91 BTC of longs and the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open unfinished."],"why":"81,583 a detail; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails this time: 91 BTC of longs and the 09-18 breakout bar's 76,386 open unfinished.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p10/6","path":"p10","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":43.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145); 75 BTC longs under it.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p10/7","path":"p10","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":53.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81); 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed, 0.90x."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81); 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed, 0.90x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p10/8","path":"p10","from":76143.964285736,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":78.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 79,628 and 80,600 passed as details; s3 VAL from below held 4 of 4 (n 4) — retested from below and taken, kind gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 79,628 and 80,600 passed as details; s3 VAL from below held 4 of 4 (n 4) — retested from below and taken, kind gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p10/9","path":"p10","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":108.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 85,522 a detail; the twice-rejected high breaks on the third test with its shorts rebuilt — kind unmeasured, a guess."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 85,522 a detail; the twice-rejected high breaks on the third test with its shorts rebuilt — kind unmeasured, a guess.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p10/10","path":"p10","from":87389.54136519055,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":138.0,"basis":["POC 90,000 from below gives way 67% (n 67) inside the leg; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC 90,000 from below gives way 67% (n 67) inside the leg; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,70.0]},{"id":"p10/11","path":"p10","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":198.0,"basis":["HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p10/12","path":"p10","from":97932.0,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":167.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted: HVN low 100,874 from below 77% (n 96), VAL 103,035 70% (n 87), s3 VAH 106,651 80% (n 91); year ends at s23's POC, 1.30x — the 2022 template's week-30 level."],"why":"Sweep accepted: HVN low 100,874 from below 77% (n 96), VAL 103,035 70% (n 87), s3 VAH 106,651 80% (n 91); year ends at s23's POC, 1.30x — the 2022 template's week-30 level.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[70.0,270.0]},{"id":"p11/1","path":"p11","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p11/2","path":"p11","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p11/3","path":"p11","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p11/4","path":"p11","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below (2026-01-29), poc from below bounces 54% (n 67)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below (2026-01-29), poc from below bounces 54% (n 67).","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p11/5","path":"p11","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details inside the rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details inside the rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — a real edge — 91 BTC of longs swept.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p11/6","path":"p11","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":94.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p11/7","path":"p11","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":134.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails on the third test: the flush takes s2's bad low."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91, walk 42%) fails on the third test: the flush takes s2's bad low.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p11/8","path":"p11","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":149.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 (held 2 of 2 from above) passed after a third failure; VAL 76,144 held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"Rangelow from above give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 (held 2 of 2 from above) passed after a third failure; VAL 76,144 held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p11/9","path":"p11","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":161.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are the magnet, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 are the magnet, swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p11/10","path":"p11","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":191.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p11/11","path":"p11","from":79628.305704497,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":221.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% → 44% the rotation returns to the range low; second test with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% → 44% the rotation returns to the range low; second test with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p11/12","path":"p11","from":72992.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":144.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[60.0,240.0]},{"id":"p12/1","path":"p12","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p12/2","path":"p12","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,10.0]},{"id":"p12/3","path":"p12","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":12.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts at 90,000.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p12/4","path":"p12","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":22.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues vs the retest of 85,522; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues vs the retest of 85,522; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p12/5","path":"p12","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p12/6","path":"p12","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":52.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts, CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC of shorts, CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p12/7","path":"p12","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":72.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted 55% (rangehigh bounce 38% is the counter; 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 the fuel); HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); retested and held."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55% (rangehigh bounce 38% is the counter; 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 the fuel); HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p12/8","path":"p12","from":100874.133928584,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":97.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23 VAL gave way 1 of 1 from above, retested from below and held."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s23 VAL gave way 1 of 1 from above, retested from below and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,55.0]},{"id":"p12/9","path":"p12","from":103035.030748923,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":142.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 and 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; 2018 template 1.4x by week 20."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 104,898 and 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; 2018 template 1.4x by week 20.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,100.0]},{"id":"p12/10","path":"p12","from":109995.684938239,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":182.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback to the last reclaimed level; HVN low from above bounces 64% (n 76, walk 63%), 100,874 held 1 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 42% the pullback to the last reclaimed level; HVN low from above bounces 64% (n 76, walk 63%), 100,874 held 1 of 2 from above.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p12/11","path":"p12","from":100874.133928584,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":70.0,"arrival_day":252.0,"basis":["HVN low from above bounce 64% (n 76); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"HVN low from above bounce 64% (n 76); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[30.0,140.0]},{"id":"p12/12","path":"p12","from":115992.363637308,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.52,"days_median":113.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; HVN high 119,508 from below gives way 80% (n 107); 1.47x is the 2022 template's high."],"why":"Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150; HVN high 119,508 from below gives way 80% (n 107); 1.47x is the 2022 template's high.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[50.0,200.0]},{"id":"p13/1","path":"p13","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p13/2","path":"p13","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p13/3","path":"p13","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p13/4","path":"p13","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); 59 BTC shorts.","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p13/5","path":"p13","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%."],"why":"VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%), gives way 80%.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p13/6","path":"p13","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high 93,909 from below gives way 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p13/7","path":"p13","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":79.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,50.0]},{"id":"p13/8","path":"p13","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":99.0,"basis":["Accepted 55% vs rejected 45%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"Accepted 55% vs rejected 45%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p13/9","path":"p13","from":100874.133928584,"to":106651.47237216,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":139.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87), 104,898 passed; s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below gives way 70% (n 87), 104,898 passed; s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p13/10","path":"p13","from":106651.47237216,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":35.0,"arrival_day":174.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% pullback to the last reclaimed VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 103,035 gave way 1 of 1 from above (n 1, a guess)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 40% pullback to the last reclaimed VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 103,035 gave way 1 of 1 from above (n 1, a guess).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,80.0]},{"id":"p13/11","path":"p13","from":103035.030748923,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":254.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); VAH from below 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); VAH from below 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[30.0,160.0]},{"id":"p13/12","path":"p13","from":115992.363637308,"to":126208.0,"kind":"ath","owner":"ath@2025-10-06","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":111.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Liquidity bands 1,004/1,268/1,290/1,151 BTC at 117,300/121,875/124,150/126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); the ATH swept for the shorts and rejected at 1.50x — 2018's 3.4x is out of reach at peak_over_trend 1.25 vs 6.4."],"why":"Liquidity bands 1,004/1,268/1,290/1,151 BTC at 117,300/121,875/124,150/126,208; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); the ATH swept for the shorts and rejected at 1.50x — 2018's 3.4x is out of reach at peak_over_trend 1.25 vs 6.4.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[50.0,200.0]},{"id":"p14/1","path":"p14","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p14/2","path":"p14","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p14/3","path":"p14","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below and holds again."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below and holds again.","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p14/4","path":"p14","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":23.0,"basis":["Rejection at the POC rotates to VAL; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Rejection at the POC rotates to VAL; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p14/5","path":"p14","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":33.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p14/6","path":"p14","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":45.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p14/7","path":"p14","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p14/8","path":"p14","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":70.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — lost: 20d CVD −1.3% and 52 BTC of longs chain to the 919 at 72,992."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81) — lost: 20d CVD −1.3% and 52 BTC of longs chain to the 919 at 72,992.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p14/9","path":"p14","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":82.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at the untouched s27 range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at the untouched s27 range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p14/10","path":"p14","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":92.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) a detail; CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15) — swept and reclaimed, 0.82x, the 2018 template's 0.83 low."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) a detail; CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills (92.7% of 454); 69,198 from below held or bounced 15 of 15 (n 15) — swept and reclaimed, 0.82x, the 2018 template's 0.83 low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p14/11","path":"p14","from":69198.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.35,"days_median":35.0,"arrival_day":127.0,"basis":["69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8) so a hold is the minority read, 35%; 72,992 retaken (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87)."],"why":"69,198 from above gave way 8 of 8 (n 8) so a hold is the minority read, 35%; 72,992 retaken (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[12.0,80.0]},{"id":"p14/12","path":"p14","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":238.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) on each approach: range 69,972↔79,628 for the rest of the year, ending at its top, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91) on each approach: range 69,972↔79,628 for the rest of the year, ending at its top, 0.94x — the 2014 template's range year.","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[90.0,330.0]},{"id":"p15/1","path":"p15","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p15/2","path":"p15","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance under 82,817 even; s3 VAL 81,583 (14 touches, 113 BTC longs) swept: va70low from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); the 09-19 low taken and reclaimed."],"why":"Acceptance under 82,817 even; s3 VAL 81,583 (14 touches, 113 BTC longs) swept: va70low from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); the 09-19 low taken and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p15/3","path":"p15","from":81583.14037464,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 82,817 retaken; s2 VAL retested from below.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p15/4","path":"p15","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept and sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier) is the edge."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept and sold — kind unmeasured, the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier) is the edge.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p15/5","path":"p15","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":52.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42%; 85,522 a detail; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 rotates."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42%; 85,522 a detail; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 rotates.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p15/6","path":"p15","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":82.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); second sweep of 87,390 sold — the 09-21 high is a double top after two failures."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); second sweep of 87,390 sold — the 09-21 high is a double top after two failures.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p15/7","path":"p15","from":87389.54136519055,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":102.0,"basis":["Second rejection; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details on the third rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails on the third test."],"why":"Second rejection; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details on the third rotation; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — fails on the third test.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p15/8","path":"p15","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":112.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, kind bounces 62% (n 81), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 from above, kind bounces 62% (n 81), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p15/9","path":"p15","from":76143.964285736,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":132.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected on the first retest from below."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected on the first retest from below.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p15/10","path":"p15","from":79628.305704497,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":157.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → the rotation reaches the range low; 76,144 lost on the second test (kind give-way 63%, n 81); 919 BTC of longs swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → the rotation reaches the range low; 76,144 lost on the second test (kind give-way 63%, n 81); 919 BTC of longs swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p15/11","path":"p15","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":217.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%) on the second approach."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91); 76,144 from below 70% (n 87); VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%) on the second approach.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p15/12","path":"p15","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":148.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); 80,600 (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87) and 81,583 (from below held 4 of 4) retaken; year ends at s2's VAL, 1.01x — the 2014 template's flat year (end 0.93)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); 80,600 (rangelow from below gives way 69%, n 87) and 81,583 (from below held 4 of 4) retaken; year ends at s2's VAL, 1.01x — the 2014 template's flat year (end 0.93).","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[60.0,240.0]},{"id":"p16/1","path":"p16","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p16/2","path":"p16","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p16/3","path":"p16","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p16/4","path":"p16","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":21.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45% give way; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45% give way; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above (n 2), kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p16/5","path":"p16","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":36.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145, walk 61%) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks (324 BTC) flushed; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145, walk 61%) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks (324 BTC) flushed; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p16/6","path":"p16","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":46.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept and sold — third rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept and sold — third rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p16/7","path":"p16","from":87389.54136519055,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":61.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected → 40% the rotation runs through s2's lower value (85,522, 82,817, 81,583 details) to the range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails on the second test."],"why":"Sweep rejected → 40% the rotation runs through s2's lower value (85,522, 82,817, 81,583 details) to the range low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails on the second test.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p16/8","path":"p16","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":73.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 lost on its second test (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152); s27 VAL lost: kind gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%)."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 lost on its second test (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152); s27 VAL lost: kind gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p16/9","path":"p16","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":83.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992 swept; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p16/10","path":"p16","from":72992.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":113.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected a fourth time."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s27 VAH from below bounces 35% (n 91, walk 46%) — rejected a fourth time.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p16/11","path":"p16","from":79628.305704497,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":153.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91); second test of the range low with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91); second test of the range low with longs rebuilt: rangelow from above give-way 46% (n 91).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p16/12","path":"p16","from":72992.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":212.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills 92.7%) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x."],"why":"69,972 (857 BTC) and 69,198 (8 of 8 gave way from above, CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills 92.7%) passed; s25 POC held 7 of 8 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%), 2,919 BTC of longs swept and reclaimed; range 66,998↔72,992 to year end, 0.79x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[90.0,300.0]},{"id":"p17/1","path":"p17","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p17/2","path":"p17","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,10.0]},{"id":"p17/3","path":"p17","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":12.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p17/4","path":"p17","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":22.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p17/5","path":"p17","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p17/6","path":"p17","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":52.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept and sold; the 2018 template's day-17 'high swept and rejected' at 1.06x."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts and CME gap 97,700–97,965 — swept and sold; the 2018 template's day-17 'high swept and rejected' at 1.06x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p17/7","path":"p17","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":72.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) passed; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — fails."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) passed; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p17/8","path":"p17","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.47,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":87.0,"basis":["POC from above give-way 53% (n 94, walk 70%) → 47%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81); 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from above give-way 53% (n 94, walk 70%) → 47%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81); 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p17/9","path":"p17","from":85521.97409094818,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":112.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); 82,817 and 81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — lost."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); 82,817 and 81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — lost.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p17/10","path":"p17","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":137.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — 0.90x."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed; s27 VAL held 1 of 1, kind bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%), 27 BTC longs swept and reclaimed — 0.90x.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p17/11","path":"p17","from":76143.964285736,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":197.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 79,628 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) and 80,600 (rangelow from below 69%, n 87) retaken; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%) — rejected on the first return."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 79,628 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) and 80,600 (rangelow from below 69%, n 87) retaken; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%) — rejected on the first return.","at_level":"hold","shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p17/12","path":"p17","from":85521.97409094818,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":168.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 42% the rotation returns to s27's VAL; range 76,144↔85,522 to year end, ending at its low, 0.90x — the 2014 template (end 0.93)."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 42% the rotation returns to s27's VAL; range 76,144↔85,522 to year end, ending at its low, 0.90x — the 2014 template (end 0.93).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[70.0,270.0]},{"id":"p18/1","path":"p18","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p18/2","path":"p18","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the first retest from below is sold."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; s2 VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): the first retest from below is sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p18/3","path":"p18","from":85521.97409094818,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":21.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 36% the rejection reaches the sweep level again vs 87,390; 82,817 holds a second time — kind unmeasured, walk."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 36% the rejection reaches the sweep level again vs 87,390; 82,817 holds a second time — kind unmeasured, walk.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p18/4","path":"p18","from":82817.2648093112,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":36.0,"basis":["Second reclaim of 82,817; VAL 85,522 from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept."],"why":"Second reclaim of 82,817; VAL 85,522 from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts at 87,390 swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p18/5","path":"p18","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":61.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42% of a return to s3's VAL vs 90,000; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk 42% of a return to s3's VAL vs 90,000; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p18/6","path":"p18","from":81583.14037464,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":86.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 87,390 breaks on the third test (kind unmeasured, a guess); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 87,390 breaks on the third test (kind unmeasured, a guess); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p18/7","path":"p18","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":106.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the retest reaches s2 VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) — holds."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the retest reaches s2 VAL; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) — holds.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p18/8","path":"p18","from":85521.97409094818,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":146.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 90,000 retaken, VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); 90,000 retaken, VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p18/9","path":"p18","from":96481.1555268,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":176.0,"basis":["POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"POC 96,481 from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) → 40% the pullback returns to the last reclaimed POC; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p18/10","path":"p18","from":89999.752228305,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":226.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 96,481 and 97,932 (rangehigh from below bounces 38%, n 156; 1,865 BTC shorts) passed; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 96,481 and 97,932 (rangehigh from below bounces 38%, n 156; 1,865 BTC shorts) passed; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p18/11","path":"p18","from":100874.133928584,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":271.0,"basis":["HVN low from below bounce 46% (n 96) → 42%; pullback to the last reclaimed level; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%)."],"why":"HVN low from below bounce 46% (n 96) → 42%; pullback to the last reclaimed level; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p18/12","path":"p18","from":96481.1555268,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":94.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 103,035 (VAL from below 70%, n 87), 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; s23 POC by year end, 1.30x."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 103,035 (VAL from below 70%, n 87), 106,651 (VAH from below 80%, n 91) passed; s23 POC by year end, 1.30x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[40.0,180.0]},{"id":"p19/1","path":"p19","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): 60 BTC of shorts swept and the level sold."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below bounces 54% (n 87, walk 51%): 60 BTC of shorts swept and the level sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p19/2","path":"p19","from":85521.97409094818,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection reaches 82,817; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken."],"why":"VAL from below bounce 54% (n 87) → 38% the rejection reaches 82,817; the 120 BTC of longs under the sweep level are taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p19/3","path":"p19","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.52,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":11.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but its own 2 of 2 from above gave way (n 2, a guess); 113 BTC longs taken."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured; s3 VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%) but its own 2 of 2 from above gave way (n 2, a guess); 113 BTC longs taken.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p19/4","path":"p19","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); s2 range low with 91 BTC of longs; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); s2 range low with 91 BTC of longs; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p19/5","path":"p19","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":25.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH held 2 of 2 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%); 75 BTC longs swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p19/6","path":"p19","from":79628.305704497,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":40.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks flushed; s2 VAL retested."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145) with the 80,600–82,817 stacks flushed; s2 VAL retested.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p19/7","path":"p19","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":55.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept, sold — second rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390 shorts swept, sold — second rejection of the 09-21 high; kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p19/8","path":"p19","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":85.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); range 81,583↔87,390.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p19/9","path":"p19","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":130.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); third sweep of 87,390 sold — the range's top."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81); third sweep of 87,390 sold — the range's top.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p19/10","path":"p19","from":87389.54136519055,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":190.0,"basis":["Third rejection → the range widens to s2's low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%): 80,600↔87,390 for a quarter, the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82, weeks 10–45)."],"why":"Third rejection → the range widens to s2's low; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%): 80,600↔87,390 for a quarter, the 2014 template's range (0.63–0.82, weeks 10–45).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p19/11","path":"p19","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":250.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); 87,390 breaks on the fourth test; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); retested and held."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); 87,390 breaks on the fourth test; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p19/12","path":"p19","from":89999.752228305,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":115.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); year ends at s3's POC, 1.14x."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91), HVN high 93,909 80% (n 107); year ends at s3's POC, 1.14x.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[50.0,200.0]},{"id":"p20/1","path":"p20","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p20/2","path":"p20","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p20/3","path":"p20","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":15.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p20/4","path":"p20","from":89999.752228305,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":25.0,"basis":["POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch rotates to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"POC from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%): the first touch rotates to VAL 85,522, retested from above — VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p20/5","path":"p20","from":85521.97409094818,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":40.0,"basis":["Retest held; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"Retest held; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p20/6","path":"p20","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":60.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107, walk 69%); CME gap 95,600–95,665 fills.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p20/7","path":"p20","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":80.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC of shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC of shorts swept, CME gap 97,700–97,965 filled.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,50.0]},{"id":"p20/8","path":"p20","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":100.0,"basis":["Accepted 55%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%)."],"why":"Accepted 55%: 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeeze; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p20/9","path":"p20","from":100874.133928584,"to":106651.47237216,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":145.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%); retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[20.0,100.0]},{"id":"p20/10","path":"p20","from":106651.47237216,"to":115992.363637308,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":205.0,"basis":["POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); s23 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990; retested and held."],"why":"POC 109,996 from below 67% (n 67); s23 VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91); partially filled gap 116,570–116,990; retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p20/11","path":"p20","from":115992.363637308,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.52,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":285.0,"basis":["Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, HVN high 119,508 (from below gives way 80%, n 107), 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150."],"why":"Only liquidity bands above: 1,004 BTC at 117,300, HVN high 119,508 (from below gives way 80%, n 107), 1,268 at 121,875, 1,290 at 124,150.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[35.0,160.0]},{"id":"p20/12","path":"p20","from":124150.0,"to":126208.0,"kind":"ath","owner":"ath@2025-10-06","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":80.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,151 BTC of shorts at the ATH swept and accepted at 1.50x — the 2018 (1.9x) and 2022 (1.66x) template year-ends; analogs +51 to +98% at 365d."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,151 BTC of shorts at the ATH swept and accepted at 1.50x — the 2018 (1.9x) and 2022 (1.66x) template year-ends; analogs +51 to +98% at 365d.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[35.0,160.0]},{"id":"p21/1","path":"p21","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p21/2","path":"p21","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":5.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390's 113 BTC of shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 87,390's 113 BTC of shorts swept and sold on the 15m CVD bear div (untested tier); kind unmeasured.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,12.0]},{"id":"p21/3","path":"p21","from":87389.54136519055,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 42%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2)."],"why":"Sweep rejected 42%; VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%), 85,522 gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p21/4","path":"p21","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":21.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42% give way; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42% give way; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p21/5","path":"p21","from":81583.14037464,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.54,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":51.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 retaken; second sweep of 87,390 sold."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 retaken; second sweep of 87,390 sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p21/6","path":"p21","from":87389.54136519055,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":91.0,"basis":["Kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 for two months."],"why":"Kind unmeasured → walk; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81): range 81,583↔87,390 for two months.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p21/7","path":"p21","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":111.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 38% give way on the third test; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails: the 09-18 breakout fully retraced."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 38% give way on the third test; rangelow from above bounce 54% (n 91) fails: the 09-18 breakout fully retraced.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p21/8","path":"p21","from":80600.0,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":126.0,"basis":["Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"Rangelow give-way ~46% (n 91); 79,628 passed after the range failure; s27 VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%) — 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p21/9","path":"p21","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":138.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs at 72,992; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91) — fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p21/10","path":"p21","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":150.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 passed; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8), CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 passed; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8), CME gap 68,575–69,100 fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p21/11","path":"p21","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":165.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94) — fails against 2,919 BTC of longs with 7,473 more at 65,352 pulling."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); POC from above bounces 66% (n 94) — fails against 2,919 BTC of longs with 7,473 more at 65,352 pulling.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p21/12","path":"p21","from":66997.90106991,"to":63603.075312452,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":200.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC) swept inside the leg; s24 VAH held or bounced 18 of 29 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 2,897 BTC longs swept and reclaimed; range 63,603↔69,972 to year end, 0.75x — the 2022 template low."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC) swept inside the leg; s24 VAH held or bounced 18 of 29 from above, kind bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%), 2,897 BTC longs swept and reclaimed; range 63,603↔69,972 to year end, 0.75x — the 2022 template low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[80.0,300.0]},{"id":"p22/1","path":"p22","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p22/2","path":"p22","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p22/3","path":"p22","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails; 91 BTC longs.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p22/4","path":"p22","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2)."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p22/5","path":"p22","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/6","path":"p22","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/7","path":"p22","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 (857 BTC) swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/8","path":"p22","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p22/9","path":"p22","from":66997.90106991,"to":65352.18750017,"kind":"hvnhigh","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":67.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs, 16 of 37 gave way from above) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs, 16 of 37 gave way from above) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p22/10","path":"p22","from":65352.18750017,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":79.0,"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 BTC of longs at it and 6,057 at 60,048 chain to the cycle low."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 BTC of longs at it and 6,057 at 60,048 chain to the cycle low.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p22/11","path":"p22","from":60994.00623924,"to":57758.6,"kind":"cyclelow","owner":"cycle","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":14.0,"arrival_day":93.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 (s25 VAL, held 4 of 4 from above) a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the 2026-07-01 low swept — the cycle low's unfinished business — and reclaimed on the reset; 0.68x, between 2022's 0.76 and 2014's 0.49."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 (s25 VAL, held 4 of 4 from above) a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the 2026-07-01 low swept — the cycle low's unfinished business — and reclaimed on the reset; 0.68x, between 2022's 0.76 and 2014's 0.49.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p22/12","path":"p22","from":57758.6,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":272.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Cycle-low reclaim: rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the nearest kind; 60,994 POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); s25 POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) — range 57,759↔66,998 for the rest of the year, ending near its top, 0.79x."],"why":"Cycle-low reclaim: rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) is the nearest kind; 60,994 POC from below gives way 67% (n 67); s25 POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) — range 57,759↔66,998 for the rest of the year, ending near its top, 0.79x.","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[100.0,330.0]},{"id":"p23/1","path":"p23","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p23/2","path":"p23","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p23/3","path":"p23","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p23/4","path":"p23","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":27.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p23/5","path":"p23","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; the untested VAH's 24 BTC shorts swept — and sold on the first touch, bounce 35% (n 91)."],"why":"VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91) to reach it; the untested VAH's 24 BTC shorts swept — and sold on the first touch, bounce 35% (n 91).","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p23/6","path":"p23","from":92201.00891283,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 38% the pullback reaches the POC rather than 96,481; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — holds."],"why":"VAH from below bounce 35% (n 91) → 38% the pullback reaches the POC rather than 96,481; poc from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%) — holds.","at_level":"hold","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p23/7","path":"p23","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":25.0,"arrival_day":74.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 92,201 (80%, n 91), 93,909 (80%, n 107), 96,481 (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); 92,201 (80%, n 91), 93,909 (80%, n 107), 96,481 (67%, n 67) passed; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,60.0]},{"id":"p23/8","path":"p23","from":97932.0,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":104.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%) — the range's low."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145, walk 61%) — the range's low.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p23/9","path":"p23","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":149.0,"basis":["VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); second sweep of the range high sold: rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk."],"why":"VAH from above bounce 69% (n 145); second sweep of the range high sold: rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158, walk 68%), the level holds better than the walk.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p23/10","path":"p23","from":97932.0,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":194.0,"basis":["Second rejection; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145); range 92,201↔97,932 (s2's upper quarter) rotates."],"why":"Second rejection; VAH from above bounces 69% (n 145); range 92,201↔97,932 (s2's upper quarter) rotates.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p23/11","path":"p23","from":92201.00891283,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":254.0,"basis":["Third approach breaks: shorts rebuilt at 98,000–100,450 (3,374 BTC) are the fuel; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158)."],"why":"Third approach breaks: shorts rebuilt at 98,000–100,450 (3,374 BTC) are the fuel; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158).","at_level":"lost","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p23/12","path":"p23","from":97932.0,"to":103035.030748923,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":111.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); year ends at s23's VAL, 1.22x."],"why":"HVN low 100,874 from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); year ends at s23's VAL, 1.22x.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[50.0,200.0]},{"id":"p24/1","path":"p24","from":84355.1,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.45,"days_median":2.0,"arrival_day":2.0,"basis":["Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%)."],"why":"Walk 56% up cut to 45% by 5d/20d CVD −0.7%/−1.3%; VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,6.0]},{"id":"p24/2","path":"p24","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":6.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[2.0,10.0]},{"id":"p24/3","path":"p24","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":12.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%).","at_level":null,"shape":"rotation","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p24/4","path":"p24","from":89999.752228305,"to":92201.00891283,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":22.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) → 60% the rotation continues; VAH from below gives way 80% (n 91, walk 73%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p24/5","path":"p24","from":92201.00891283,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":15.0,"arrival_day":37.0,"basis":["HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107) to reach s3's POC; there poc from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) — the untested POC's 18 BTC shorts swept and sold, CME gap 95,600–95,665 filled."],"why":"HVN high from below gives way 80% (n 107) to reach s3's POC; there poc from below bounces 54% (n 67, walk 55%) — the untested POC's 18 BTC shorts swept and sold, CME gap 95,600–95,665 filled.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p24/6","path":"p24","from":96481.1555268,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":57.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 44% the rotation runs through 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) and 90,000 (POC from above gives way 53%, n 94) to s2's VAL — lost, 2 of 2 from above."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 44% the rotation runs through 92,201 (VAH from above gives way 51%, n 152) and 90,000 (POC from above gives way 53%, n 94) to s2's VAL — lost, 2 of 2 from above.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p24/7","path":"p24","from":85521.97409094818,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":77.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed — the 0.786 pocket of the 09-18 → 96k leg."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 82,817 a detail; s3 VAL (113 BTC longs) swept and reclaimed — the 0.786 pocket of the 09-18 → 96k leg.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p24/8","path":"p24","from":81583.14037464,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":117.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 (70%, n 87) and 87,390 retaken; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67)."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%); 85,522 (70%, n 87) and 87,390 retaken; POC from below gives way 67% (n 67).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p24/9","path":"p24","from":89999.752228305,"to":96481.1555268,"kind":"poc","owner":"s3","direction":"up","probability":0.62,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":157.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second approach."],"why":"VAH 92,201 from below gives way 80% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67) on the second approach.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p24/10","path":"p24","from":96481.1555268,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":187.0,"basis":["Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold."],"why":"Rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156, walk 43%); 1,865 BTC shorts swept, sold.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p24/11","path":"p24","from":97932.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":60.0,"arrival_day":247.0,"basis":["Sweep rejected 45%; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): range 90,000↔97,932."],"why":"Sweep rejected 45%; POC from above bounces 66% (n 94, walk 53%): range 90,000↔97,932.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[25.0,120.0]},{"id":"p24/12","path":"p24","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":118.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); the range's top reached again by year end, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158)."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94); the range's top reached again by year end, 1.16x — the 2014 template's week-50 high; rangehigh from above give-way 53% (n 158).","at_level":null,"shape":"range","days_range":[50.0,200.0]},{"id":"p25/1","path":"p25","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs taken, not reclaimed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p25/2","path":"p25","from":82817.2648093112,"to":81583.14037464,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s3","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":4.0,"arrival_day":7.0,"basis":["Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%)."],"why":"Acceptance even; s3 VAL gave way 2 of 2 from above (n 2) vs kind bounce 62% (n 81, walk 57%).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[1.0,10.0]},{"id":"p25/3","path":"p25","from":81583.14037464,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.46,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":13.0,"basis":["VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above gives way 63% (n 81, walk 71%); rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p25/4","path":"p25","from":80600.0,"to":79628.305704497,"kind":"va70high","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":19.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2)."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 45%; s27 VAH kind bounces 69% (n 145), held 2 of 2 (n 2).","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p25/5","path":"p25","from":79628.305704497,"to":76143.964285736,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"VAH from above gives way 51% (n 152, walk 68%) → 36%; s27 VAL held 1 of 1 but 52 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/6","path":"p25","from":76143.964285736,"to":72992.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s27","direction":"down","probability":0.42,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":39.0,"basis":["VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails."],"why":"VAL from above bounce 62% (n 81) → 42%; 919 BTC of longs; rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) fails.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/7","path":"p25","from":72992.0,"to":69198.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s17","direction":"down","probability":0.44,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91) → 44%; 69,972 swept inside; 69,198 gave way 8 of 8 from above (n 8); CME gap fills.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/8","path":"p25","from":69198.0,"to":66997.90106991,"kind":"poc","owner":"s25","direction":"down","probability":0.7,"days_median":10.0,"arrival_day":59.0,"basis":["69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on."],"why":"69,198 from above 8 of 8 (n 8, small); s25 POC kind bounces 66% (n 94) but 2,919 BTC at it and 7,473 at 65,352 pull the cascade on.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,25.0]},{"id":"p25/9","path":"p25","from":66997.90106991,"to":65352.18750017,"kind":"hvnhigh","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.36,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":67.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 36%; 65,352 (7,473 BTC longs) is the magnet; HVN high bounce 65% (n 141) overwhelmed by the stack.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p25/10","path":"p25","from":65352.18750017,"to":60994.00623924,"kind":"poc","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.45,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":79.0,"basis":["HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 + 6,057 BTC of longs chain."],"why":"HVN high from above gives way 54% (n 149, walk 72%) → 45%; 63,603 passed; s24 POC held 17 of 22 from above, kind bounces 66% (n 94) — lost: 6,704 + 6,057 BTC of longs chain.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[4.0,30.0]},{"id":"p25/11","path":"p25","from":60994.00623924,"to":57758.6,"kind":"cyclelow","owner":"cycle","direction":"down","probability":0.38,"days_median":14.0,"arrival_day":93.0,"basis":["POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the cycle low swept and not reclaimed — rangelow kind from above bounces 54% (n 91), so acceptance is the minority read."],"why":"POC from above bounce 66% (n 94) → 38%; 60,048 a detail; 6,738 BTC of longs at the cycle low swept and not reclaimed — rangelow kind from above bounces 54% (n 91), so acceptance is the minority read.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[5.0,35.0]},{"id":"p25/12","path":"p25","from":57758.6,"to":53245.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s24","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":272.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["Rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 40% give way; 55,666 (s24 VAL, held 16 of 18 from above, 3,617 BTC longs) passed; s24 range low held 6 of 6 from above (n 6), CME gap 53,695–54,545 fills (92.7% of 454) — swept and held, then range 53,245↔60,994 to year end, 0.63x — the 2014 template (0.49 low, 0.63–0.72 range)."],"why":"Rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) → 40% give way; 55,666 (s24 VAL, held 16 of 18 from above, 3,617 BTC longs) passed; s24 range low held 6 of 6 from above (n 6), CME gap 53,695–54,545 fills (92.7% of 454) — swept and held, then range 53,245↔60,994 to year end, 0.63x — the 2014 template (0.49 low, 0.63–0.72 range).","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[100.0,330.0]},{"id":"p26/1","path":"p26","from":84355.1,"to":82817.2648093112,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s19","direction":"down","probability":0.55,"days_median":3.0,"arrival_day":3.0,"basis":["Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed."],"why":"Sweep kind unmeasured (walk 44%) lifted to 55% by 5d CVD −0.7% and the 83,450 LL; 120 BTC of longs swept, reclaimed.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[1.0,8.0]},{"id":"p26/2","path":"p26","from":82817.2648093112,"to":85521.97409094818,"kind":"va70low","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":6.0,"arrival_day":9.0,"basis":["Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward."],"why":"Reclaim vs acceptance even; VAL from above bounces 62% (n 81, walk 57%); retested and lost upward.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[2.0,15.0]},{"id":"p26/3","path":"p26","from":85521.97409094818,"to":87389.54136519055,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s11","direction":"up","probability":0.64,"days_median":8.0,"arrival_day":17.0,"basis":["VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept."],"why":"VAL from below gives way 70% (n 87, walk 74%); 113 BTC of shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"sweep","days_range":[3.0,20.0]},{"id":"p26/4","path":"p26","from":87389.54136519055,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.6,"days_median":12.0,"arrival_day":29.0,"basis":["POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below, poc from below bounces 54% (n 67)."],"why":"POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) is the odds of reaching it; there it holds: 90,000 held 1 of 1 from below, poc from below bounces 54% (n 67).","at_level":"hold","shape":"rotation","days_range":[4.0,25.0]},{"id":"p26/5","path":"p26","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.4,"days_median":20.0,"arrival_day":49.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), 91 BTC of longs swept."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67) → 40% the rejection runs to the range low; 85,522/82,817/81,583 details; rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%), 91 BTC of longs swept.","at_level":"hold","shape":"sweep","days_range":[8.0,45.0]},{"id":"p26/6","path":"p26","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":94.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); s2 range 80,600↔90,000 rotates; POC from below bounces 54% (n 67) on the second visit.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p26/7","path":"p26","from":89999.752228305,"to":80600.0,"kind":"rangelow","owner":"s2","direction":"down","probability":0.5,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":134.0,"basis":["POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — holds a third time, the range's low is finished."],"why":"POC from below bounce 54% (n 67); rangelow from above bounces 54% (n 91, walk 42%) — holds a third time, the range's low is finished.","at_level":"hold","shape":"range","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p26/8","path":"p26","from":80600.0,"to":89999.752228305,"kind":"poc","owner":"s2","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":40.0,"arrival_day":174.0,"basis":["Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) on the third approach; retested and held."],"why":"Rangelow bounce 54% (n 91); POC from below gives way 67% (n 67, walk 70%) on the third approach; retested and held.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[15.0,90.0]},{"id":"p26/9","path":"p26","from":89999.752228305,"to":97932.0,"kind":"sweep","owner":"sweep:s10","direction":"up","probability":0.56,"days_median":45.0,"arrival_day":219.0,"basis":["VAH 92,201 (80%, n 91), HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept."],"why":"VAH 92,201 (80%, n 91), HVN high 93,909 (80%, n 107), POC 96,481 (67%, n 67) from below; rangehigh from below bounces 38% (n 156); 1,865 BTC shorts swept.","at_level":"sweep","shape":"trend","days_range":[15.0,100.0]},{"id":"p26/10","path":"p26","from":97932.0,"to":100874.133928584,"kind":"hvnlow","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.55,"days_median":30.0,"arrival_day":249.0,"basis":["Sweep accepted 55%; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeezed."],"why":"Sweep accepted 55%; HVN low from below gives way 77% (n 96, walk 78%); 3,374 BTC of shorts 98,000–100,450 squeezed.","at_level":"lost","shape":"break_retest","days_range":[10.0,70.0]},{"id":"p26/11","path":"p26","from":100874.133928584,"to":109995.684938239,"kind":"poc","owner":"s23","direction":"up","probability":0.58,"days_median":50.0,"arrival_day":299.0,"basis":["VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH 106,651 from below 80% (n 91); s23 POC."],"why":"VAL 103,035 from below 70% (n 87); s3 VAH 106,651 from below 80% (n 91); s23 POC.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[20.0,110.0]},{"id":"p26/12","path":"p26","from":109995.684938239,"to":124150.0,"kind":"liqband","owner":"liqmap","direction":"up","probability":0.5,"days_median":66.0,"arrival_day":365.0,"basis":["VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91); liquidity bands 1,268/1,290 BTC at 121,875/124,150; a 13% trend leg in 66 days is the fast end of the tape (10% ≈ 18 days for a walk) — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, 1.47x here."],"why":"VAH 115,992 from below gives way 80% (n 91); liquidity bands 1,268/1,290 BTC at 121,875/124,150; a 13% trend leg in 66 days is the fast end of the tape (10% ≈ 18 days for a walk) — the 2014 template's week-50 spike, 1.47x here.","at_level":null,"shape":"trend","days_range":[25.0,140.0]}],"first_fork":[{"to":82817.2648093112,"direction":"down","probability":0.6400000000000001,"days_median":3.0,"paths":16},{"to":85521.97409094818,"direction":"up","probability":0.3600000000000001,"days_median":2.0,"paths":10}],"problems":[],"notes":[],"coverage":1.0000000000000004,"reach_share":1.0,"valid":true,"how_to_read":"a path is a walk from today's close through the operator's levels to the end of the year; each leg's probability is the model's, given the legs before, resting on the statistics it cites; a path's probability is the weight the model gives the scenario (the weights sum to one), not the product of its legs; arrival_day is the cumulative median; the colour of a leg on the page is its own probability on the operator's scale (60% green, 50% white, 40% red)","prev_hash":"2193ff9961d35e96658115a64b660f3667085911b5035b15f93c78e1f13838df","hash":"20acb1f3d96140c372ee6faebe1a6fa131b31637866afc43dc6927c7afa9efe5","written_ms":1790213551779}